Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for September

Well, here we are. It’s the first set of Academy Award predictions for the month of September, when things get really interesting. Yes, now we can look at what Oscar could be thinking based upon, at least in part, what the fall festival season has brought us. Now, buzz from the various fests isn’t the solo factor here, but it’s one that is definitely worth utilizing. The Academy can be a specific bunch, so there isn’t perfect crossover, but in certain cases there clearly is a correlation. Voters will obviously fall in love with some of the same films before all is said and done.

What you’ll see in this Oscar lineup I’m positing is some movement by the festival darlings. Not only has La La Land solidified its frontrunner status, we’ve seen things like Jackie, Lion, and Moonlight take big jumps, along with other contenders like Arrival, Manchester by the Sea, and Nocturnal Animals maintaining their footholds in the race. We’re really only waiting on 20th Century Women, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Fences, and Silence to have a complete picture of what’s vying for awards this year. Two of those will be revealed at the upcoming New York Film Festival, so the X factor/mystery players will shrink even more in the coming weeks. It’s a fun time, believe me.

Here now are my up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Lion
5. Jackie
6. Loving
7. 20th Century Women
8. Fences
9. Silence
10. Sully

Next in line: 11. Arrival 12. Moonlight 13. Nocturnal Animals 14. Passengers 15. The Birth of a Nation 16. Miss Sloane 17. Hidden Figures 18. Thank You For Your Service 19. Hell or High Water 20. Allied 21. The Founder 22. Patriot’s Day 23. Café Society 24. Snowden 25. Collateral Beauty

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
3, Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Pablo Larraín – Jackie
5. Garth Davis – Lion

Next in line: 6. Martin Scorsese – Silence 7. Jeff Nichols – Loving 8. Denzel Washington – Fences 9. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 10. Clint Eastwood – Sully

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Ryan Gosling – La La Land (or The Nice Guys)
3. Michael Keaton – The Founder
4. Joel Edgerton – Loving
5. Denzel Washington – Fences

Next in line: 6. Chris Pratt – Passengers 7. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Snowden 8. Tom Hanks – Sully 9. Dev Patel – Lion 10. Miles Teller – Bleed for This (or Thank You for Your Service)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Natalie Portman – Jackie
3. Viola Davis – Fences
4. Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals (or Arrival)
5. Ruth Negga – Loving

Next in line: 6. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women 7. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers 8. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins 9. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane 10. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Liam Neeson – Silence
2. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
3. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Next in line: 6. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight 7. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water 8. Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie 9. Oscar Isaac – The Promise 10. John Goodman – 10 Cloverfield Lane (or Patriot’s Day)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (or Café Society)
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Laura Linney – Nocturnal Animals
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Naomi Harris – Moonlight

Next in line: 6. Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women 7. Aja Naomi King – The Birth of a Nation 8. Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women 9. Shailene Woodley – Snowden 10. Rooney Mara – Lion

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Jackie
4. 20th Century Women
5. Moonlight

Next in line: 6. Loving 7. Passengers 8. Hell or High Water 9. Miss Sloane 10. Café Society

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2. Silence
3. Lion
4. Arrival
5. Fences

Next in line: 6. Nocturnal Animals 7. Hidden Figures 8. Sully 9. Thank You for Your Service 10. Snowden

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. April and the Extraordinary World
5. Sausage Party

Next in line: 6. Finding Dory 7. The Red Turtle 8. The Secret Life of Pets 9. The Little Prince 10. Kung Fu Panda 3

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Rules Don’t Apply

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2. La La Land
3. Silence
4. Arrival
5. Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass
4. Loving
5. Rules Don’t Apply

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Silence
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Arrival

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Suicide Squad
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
3. Star Trek Beyond

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Jason Bourne
5. Deadpool

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. The BFG
3. Captain America: Civil War
4. The Jungle Book
5. Arrival

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Arrival
2. Silence
3. American Pastoral
4. Loving
5. Jackie

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land
2. Sing Street
3. Moana
4. Sausage Party
5. Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. The 13th
2. Weiner
3. OJ: Made in America
4. Life, Animated
5. Gleason

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Junction 48
3. The Salesman
4. Graduation
5. It’s Only the End of the World

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

Stay tuned for another update to these early Oscar predictions sometime over the course of the next month, as we continue into the heart of the awards season!