Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for Late November

First of all, I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving! As you recover from all that turkey, it might be a shock to realize that November is almost over. Yes, December is just days away, and that means a number of things. As much as anything, it means the final Academy Award contenders will be screening, like Martin Scorsese’s Silence, to name one. It’s also the final period of time to appeal to Oscar voters. Prediction updates will be coming hot and heavy from yours truly, all in an attempt to nail this thing. Below you’ll see what I’m predicting currently, but know that these are November predictions, which are a whole different thing than December predictions.

One thing you might notice, for example, is that I’ve finally filled in the Shorts categories, which is something. Aside from that, I’ve used the middling buzz for Live by Bight and strong buzz for Patriots Days (which I’ve already seen and actually kind of loved) in order to make some major changes. It’s not a full on destruction of my predictions, but it represents some movement in key categories, including very nearly moving Denzel Washington into the top spot in Best Actor for Fences (right now Casey Affleck is still in the number one slot for Manchester by the Sea). This will be a consistent thing going forward too, so get used to it. These are definitely temporary, but it’s how I currently see the race at the moment. Overall, it’s still La La Land’s coronation, in all likelihood…

Here now are my newest Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Fences
3. Moonlight
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Lion
6. Jackie
7. Hell or High Water
8. 20th Century Women
9. Arrival
10. Patriots Day

Next in line: 11. Silence 12. Hidden Figures 13. Sully 14. Loving 15. Miss Sloane 16. Passengers 17. Live by Night 18. Nocturnal Animals 19. Captain Fantastic 20. Rules Don’t Apply 21. Gold 22. The Founder 23. The Jungle Book 24. The Lobster 25. Florence Foster Jenkins 26. The Comedian 27. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 28. Elle 29. Allied 30. The Birth of a Nation

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Denzel Washington – Fences
4. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
5. Pablo Larraín – Jackie

Next in line: 6. Denis Villenueve – Arrival 7. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 8. Garth Davis – Lion 9. Martin Scorsese – Silence 10. Peter Berg – Patriots Day 11. Clint Eastwood – Sully 12. David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water 13. Jeff Nichols – Loving 14. Ben Affleck – Live By Night 15. Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Joel Edgerton – Loving
5. Tom Hanks – Sully

Next in line: 6. Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply 7. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (or Silence) 8. Michael Keaton – The Founder 9. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic 10. Matthew McConaughey – Gold 11. Miles Teller – Bleed for This 12. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals 13. Mark Wahlberg – Patriots Day 14. Robert De Niro – The Comedian 15. Ben Affleck – Live By Night

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Natalie Portman – Jackie
3. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
4. Ruth Negga – Loving
5. Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Next in line: 6. Amy Adams – Arrival or Nocturnal Animals 7. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane 8. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins 9. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers 10. Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures 11. Rebecca Hall – Christine 12. Marion Cottilard – Allied 13. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship 14. Sally Field – Hell My Name is Doris 15. Rachel Weisz – Denial

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie
4. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
5. Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures

Next in line: 6. Dev Patel – Lion 7. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea 8. Liam Neeson – Silence 9. Mykelti Williamson – Fences 10. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals 11. Alan Rickman – Eye in the Sky 12. Chris Messina – Live by Night 13. Timothy Spall – Denial 14. Woody Harrelson – The Edge of Seventeen 15. John Goodman – 10 Cloverfield Lane (or Patriots Day)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Nicole Kidman – Lion
4. Naomi Harris – Moonlight
5. Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women

Next in line: 6. Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky 7. Molly Shannon – Other People 8. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures 9. Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women (or Live By Night) 10. Margo Martindale – The Hollars 11. Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures 12. Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls 13. Gugu Mbatha Raw – Miss Sloane 14. Leslie Mann – The Comedian 15. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. La La Land
4. Jackie
5. Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. 20th Century Women 7. Loving 8. Passengers 9. Patriots Day 10. Captain Fantastic 11. The Lobster 12. Miss Sloane 13. Paterson 14. Rules Don’t Apply 15. Everybody Wants Some

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Fences
2. Arrival
3. Lion
4. Silence
5. Hidden Figures

Next in line: 6. Nocturnal Animals 7. Sully 8. A Monster Calls 9. Love & Friendship 10. Live By Night 11. Elle 12. The Handmaiden 13. Indignation 14. Denial 15. Deadpool

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. April and the Extraordinary World
5. The Red Turtle

Next in line: 6. Finding Dory 7. The Little Prince 8. The Secret Life of Pets 9. Sausage Party 10. Sing 11. Kung Fu Panda 3 12. Trolls 13. My Life as a Zucchini 14. Phantom Boy 15. Storks

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Jackie
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Rules Don’t Apply
5. Silence

Next in line: 6. Love & Friendship 7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 8. Live By Night 9. Passengers 10. Arrival

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Nocturnal Animals

Next in line: 6. Live By Night 7. Silence 8. The Handmaiden 9. Manchester by the Sea 10. Sully

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Allied
2. La La Land
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass
4. Love & Friendship
5. Jackie

Next in line: 6. Silence 7. Nocturnal Animals 8. Fences 9. Captain Fantastic 10. The Witch

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Jackie
3. Fences
4. Moonlight
5. Arrival

Next in line: 6. Passengers 7. Manchester by the Sea 8. Sully 9. Lion 10. 20th Century Women

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Suicide Squad
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
3. Star Trek Beyond

Next in line: 6. Love & Friendship 7. Jackie 8. Doctor Strange 9. La La Land 10. The Witch

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Patriots Day
5. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Next in line: 6. Deadpool 7. Hacksaw Ridge 8. Sully 9. A Monster Calls 10. Deepwater Horizon

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Jason Bourne
5. Deadpool

Next in line: 6. Hacksaw Ridge 7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 8. Sully 9. A Monster Calls 10. Live By Night

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Passengers
5. Arrival

Next in line: 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. A Monster Calls 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. Suicide Squad 10. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Arrival
2. La La Land
3. Finding Dory
4. Silence
5. Jackie

Next in line: 6. Patriots Day 7. The BFG 8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 9. Florence Foster Jenkins 10. Live by Night

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
2. Sing Street – “Go Now”
3. La La Land – “City of Stars”
4. Moana – “We Know the Way”
5. Sausage Party – “The Great Beyond”

Next in line: 6. Sing Street – “Drive It Like You Stole It” 7. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling” 8. Hidden Figures – “Victory” 9. Snowden – “The Veil” 10. Moana – “You’re Welcome”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. 13th
2. Weiner
3. OJ: Made in America
4. Life, Animated
5. Gleason

Next in line: 6. Before the Flood 7. The Eagle Huntress 8. Tower 9. Cameraperson 10. Finding Oscar

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Land of Mine
3. Elle
4. The Salesman
5. Neruda

Next in line: 6. Julieta 7. It’s Only the End of the World 8. Sandstorm Pets 9. Sparrows 10. The Idol

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Inner Workings
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Borrowed Time
5. Once Upon a Line

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. Frame 394
4. The Other Side of Home
5. Extremis

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Silent Nights
2. The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy
3. Bon Voyage
4. Nocturne in Black
5. Timecode

Starting in December, I might be moving towards once a week updates, or something close to it, so look for a new set of predictions very soon!