Updated Oscar predictions as February rolls along

If it’s a Friday during the awards season, you know what time it is. Yes, it’s time for a new set of Academy Award predictions! We’re now only a few short weeks away from the Oscars, so the precursors are beginning to wrap up, leading to some definitive frontrunners. There are still some potential surprises to come, but they’re getting to be fewer and further in between. Right now, we’re a couple of days away from voting beginning (Monday, specifically), so it’s a big of a holding pattern. Once ballots are in hand, we might start to get a final feel for how the races might turn out. Until then, we wait and predict.

There’s only some small tinkering below, but more will be coming during the next few weeks, as predictions get locked in. I feel like a handful of the major categories are sewn up, particularly Best Picture/Best Director for La La Land/Damien Chazelle, as well as Best Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali in Moonlight and Best Supporting Actress for Viola Davis in Fences. Best Actress seems likely to be Emma Stone in La La Land, while La La Land is duking it out with Manchester by the Sea in Best Original Screenplay and Arrival is battling Moonlight in Best Adapted Screenplay. The big question mark among the big eight right now is Best Actor, where Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea is locked in basically a tie with Denzel Washington for Fences. That one especially is going to go all the way down to the wire…

Here now is my latest set of Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Hidden Figures
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Arrival
6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
9. Fences

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villenueve – Arrival
5. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Natalie Portman – Jackie
3. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
4. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga – Loving

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel – Lion
4. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
5. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. 20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Lion
4. Hidden Figures
5. Fences

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Passengers

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Silence

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Jackie
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Allied

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Hell or High Water

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Trek Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Sully

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Jungle Book
2. Deepwater Horizon
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Doctor Strange
5. Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Jackie
4. Lion
5. Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land – “City of Stars”
2. Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”
3. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
4. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling”
5. Jim: The James Foley Story – “The Empty Chair”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
3. Fire at Sea
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. The Salesman
2. Toni Erdmann
3. Land of Mine
4. A Man Called Ove
5. Tanna

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Pearl
2. Piper
3. Borrowed Time
4. Blind Vaysha
5. Pearl Cider and Cigarettes

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. Extremis
4. 4.1 Miles
5. Watani: My Homeland

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Silent Nights
2. Timecode
3. Ennemis Interieurs
4. Sing
5. La Femme et le TGV

Stay tuned for another update next week!