Updated Academy Award predictions for late September

The Oscars are still months away, but if you can believe it, only a few potential contenders have yet to reveal themselves. A Trailer for Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic (now called Vice) is really the last truly unseen contender that could majorly shake up the race. So, especially as yours truly sees the big time players (I saw If Beale Street Could Talk and will be watching First Man as you read this), crunch time is coming fast and furious. There’s a lot still to be determined, category placement wise, as you’ll see below, but big decisions are being made.

There’s some low level tinkering at play today, mostly just to keep things up to date. Of note is that while it was previously thought that Ben Foster would be going Supporting for Leave No Trace, that is no longer the case. So, he’s Lead. We’re still waiting on word about where the Beautiful Boy fellas will go, what the ladies of The Favourite will end up doing, and where John C. Reilly will go for Stan & Ollie. Once those questions get answered, we’ll know more. Plus, there’s the back and forth buzz about whether Ad Astra will be a 2018 or 2019 release. More when we have it, of course…

Here now are my latest Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. A Star is Born
2. First Man
3. Roma
4. Green Book
5. BlackKklansman
6. If Beale Street Could Talk
7. The Favourite
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9. Vice
10. Black Panther

Next in line: 11. The Front Runner 12. Boy Erased 13. On the Basis of Sex 14. Beautiful Boy 15. Cold War 16. Bohemian Rhapsody 17. Widows 18. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 19. At Eternity’s Gate 20. Mary Queen of Scots 20. 21. White Boy Rick 22. The Sisters Brothers 23. The Old Man and the Gun 24. Peterloo 25. Wildlife 26. Welcome to Marwen 27. Eighth Grade 28. Sorry to Bother You 29. Disobedience 30. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
2. Damien Chazelle – First Man
3. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
5. Spike Lee – BlackKklansman

Next in line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite 7. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 8. Adam McKay – Vice 9. Jason Reitman – The Front Runner 10. Julian Schnabel – At Eternity’s Gate

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
2. Ryan Gosling – First Man
3. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
4. Christian Bale – Vice
5. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner

Next in line: 6. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate 7. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased (or Ben is Back) 8. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun 9. Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy (or Welcome to Marwen) 10. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife
2. Stefani Germanotta (Lady Gaga) – A Star is Born
3. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
5. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex

Next in line: 6. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife 7. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots 8. Viola Davis – Widows 9. Mary Elizabeth Winstead – All About Nina 10. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
4. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Could Go Lead)
5. Robert Forster – What They Had

Next in line: 6. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 7. Sam Rockwell – Vice 8. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (or Sorry to Bother You) 9. Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate 10. Jason Clarke – First Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Claire Foy – First Man
2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Amy Adams – Vice
4. Emma Stone – The Favourite
5. Marina de Tavira – Roma

Next in line: 6. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased 7. Sissy Spacek – The Old Man and the Gun (Could Go Lead) 8. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner 9. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots 10. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. Sorry to Bother You

Next in line: 6. Eighth Grade 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. On the Basis of Sex 9. A Quiet Place 10. Hearts Beat Loud

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlackKklansman
2. First Man
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star is Born
5. The Front Runner

Next in line: 6. Black Panther 7. Wildlife 8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 9. Beautiful Boy 10. Mary Queen of Scots

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
5. The Grinch

Next in line: 6. Early Man 7. Smallfoot 8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 9. Peter Rabbit 10. Sherlock Gnomes

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 8. Mary Queen of Scots 9. If Beale Street Could Talk 10. Colette

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Cold War 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Peterloo 9. Black Panther 10. Annihilation

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. The Favourite
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Colette 7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 8. Peterloo 9. First Man 10. If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST FILM EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Star is Born
3. The Favourite
4. BlackKklansman
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Roma 7. If Beale Street Could Talk 8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. Vice 10. The Front Runner

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 4. A Star is Born 5. Mary Queen of Scots 6. A Wrinkle in Time 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. Peterloo

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. First Man
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Avengers: Infinity War 7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 8. Ready Player One 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Avengers: Infinity War 7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 8. Ready Player One 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. Annihilation
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Next in line: 6. Ready Player One 7. Ant-Man and the Wasp 8. Aquaman 9. A Wrinkle in Time 10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlackKklansman
4. The Sisters Brothers
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 7. Black Panther 8. Incredibles 2 9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 10. Suspiria

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star is Born (Shallow)
2. A Star is Born (I’ll Never Love Again)
3. Hearts Beat Loud (Hearts Beat Loud)
4. Boy Erased (Revelation)
5. Black Panther (All the Stars)

Next in line: 6. A Star is Born 7. Hearts Beat Loud 8. Black Panther 9. Mary Poppins Returns 10. Smallfoot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. RBG
4. Fahrenheit 11/9
5. Minding the Gap

Next in line: 6. The Final Year 7. Whitney 8. The King 9. The Bleeding Edge 10. Generation Wealth

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Everybody Knows
4. Capernaum
5. Shoplifters

Next in line: 6. Burning 7. Happy as Lazzaro 8. Sunset 9. Birds of Passage 10. The Fall of the American Empire

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for an update early next month!