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Updated Academy Award predictions for late December


As 2018 wraps up, Oscar voters are preparing to make some big decisions. They’re hopefully spending the upcoming holiday break catching up on the films they still need to see. Once that happens, final choices for the Academy Awards can be made, nomination wise. A handful of movies are rather desperate to get voters’ attention, so it’s a crucial time. As such, what better time is there than now to provide an update to my predictions? The Oscars this year are shaping up to be a unique one, so why not prepare for whatever surprises and snubs are coming up? This is the last one before the year ends, so the next one will be part of kicking of 2019, just as an FYI.

What you’ll see below is how I feel the race will currently end up, taking into account precursors and the recently announced shortlists from the Academy. Right now, a big shift in momentum in the favor of Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman is worth taking note of. As the winds seem to be moving away from something like Green Book, look for Lee’s film to potentially be the main challenger to Bradley Cooper’s still front-running A Star Is Born. Alfonso Cuaron still lurks nearby with Roma, but that movie has competition from other upward trending titles like Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther and even John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place. Watch out for Bohemian Rhapsody too, as you’ll see below. Time to dive in…


Here now is an updated look at my Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. A Star Is Born
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Roma
4. Green Book
5. The Favourite
6. Black Panther
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Mary Poppins Returns
9. A Quiet Place
10. First Man

Next in line: 11. If Beale Street Could Talk 12. Eighth Grade 13. Vice 14. First Reformed 15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 16. Boy Erased 17. Widows 18. Crazy Rich Asians 19. Cold War 20. On the Basis of Sex 21. The Front Runner 22. Mary Queen of Scots 23. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 24. The Hate U Give 25. Stan & Ollie 26. Sorry to Bother You 27. Beautiful Boy 28. Capernaum 29. Ben is Back 30. All is True

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
2. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
3. Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
4. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
5. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Damien Chazelle – First Man 7. Pawel Pawelkowski – Cold War 8. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk 9. Peter Farrelly – Green Book 10. Adam McKay – Vice 11. Rob Marshall – Mary Poppins Returns 12. John Krasinski – A Quiet Place 13. Marielle Heller – Can You Ever Forgive Me? 14. Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade 15. Paul Schrader – First Reformed

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
2. Christian Bale – Vice
3. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

Next in line: 6. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed 7. Ryan Gosling – First Man 8. Lucas Hedges – Ben is Back (or Boy Erased) 9. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun 10. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner 11. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie 12. Ben Foster – Leave No Trace 13. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate 14. Clint Eastwood – The Mule 15. Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here

BEST ACTRESS

1. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
2. Glenn Close – The Wife
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
4. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns
5. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Next in line: 6. Julia Roberts – Ben is Back 7. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex 8. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife 9. Toni Collette – Hereditary 10. Yalitza Aparicio – Roma 11. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots 12. Rosamund Pike – A Private War 13. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer 14. Regina Hall – Support the Girls 15. Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
4. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
5. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy

Next in line: 6. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 7. Sam Rockwell – Vice 8. Robert Forster – What They Had 9. Russell Crowe – Boy Erased 10. Steve Carell – Vice 11. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (or Sorry to Bother You) 12. Tim Blake Nelson – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 13. Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick 14. Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite 15. Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams – Vice
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
5. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place

Next in line: 6. Claire Foy – First Man 7. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots 8. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased 9. Natalie Portman – Vox Lux 10. Marina de Tavira – Roma 11. Linda Cardellini – Green Book 12. Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns 13. Thomasin McKenzie – Leave No Trace 14. Elizabeth Debicki – Widows 15. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. Roma
4. Vice
5. A Quiet Place

Next in line: 6. Eighth Grade 7. First Reformed 8. Sorry to Bother You 9. On the Basis of Sex 10. Ben is Back 11. Private Life 12. All is True 13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 14. Support the Girls 15. Hearts Beat Loud

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlackKklansman
2. A Star Is Born
3. Black Panther
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Next in line: 6. First Man 7. Boy Erased 8. Wildlife 9. The Hate U Give 10. Widows 11. Crazy Rich Asians 12. Mary Poppins Returns 13. Leave No Trace 14. Incredibles 2 15. Love, Simon

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Incredibles 2
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
5. Mirai

Next in line: 6. Ruben Brandt, Collector 7. Smallfoot 8. The Grinch 9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 10. Early Man 11. Tito and the Birds! 12. Sherlock Gnomes 13. Lu Over the Wall 14. Night is Short, Walk on Girl 15. Fireworks

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Bohemian Rhapsody 9. If Beale Street Could Talk 10. A Star Is Born 11. BlacKkKlansman 12. Stan & Ollie 13. Isle of Dogs 14. Colette 15. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. First Man
2. Roma
3. A Star Is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. BlackKklansman 9. Cold War 10. Widows 11. Black Panther 12. Vice 13. A Quiet Place 14. Suspiria 15. Never Look Away

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Colette 7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 8. If Beale Street Could Talk 9. First Man 10. Bohemian Rhapsody 11. A Wrinkle in Time 12. Crazy Rich Asians 13. All is True 14. On the Basis of Sex 15. Green Book

BEST FILM EDITING

1. A Star Is Born
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. BlackKklansman
5. Vice

Next in line: 6. The Favourite 7. If Beale Street Could Talk 8. Roma 9. A Quiet Place 10. Green Book 11. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 12. 22 July 13. Searching 14. Widows 15. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Vice
2. Black Panther
3. Stan & Ollie

Next in line: 4. Suspiria 5. Mary Queen of Scots 6. Border 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. N/A 9. N/A 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Roma 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp 11. Ready Player One 12. Deadpool 2 13. Solo: A Star Wars Story 14. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 15. Bumblebee

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Roma 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp 11. Ready Player One 12. Deadpool 2 13. Solo: A Star Wars Story 14. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 15. Bumblebee

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. Avengers: Infinity War
4. Ready Player One
5. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 6. Ant-Man and the Wasp 7. Solo: A Star Wars Story 8. Welcome to Marwen 9. Christopher Robin 10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. BlackKklansman
5. Isle of Dogs

Next in line: 6. Black Panther 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Vice 9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 10. Annihilation 11. Ready Player One 12. A Quiet Place 13. Avengers: Infinity War 14. Crazy Rich Asians 15. The Death of Stalin

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born (Shallow)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (Trip A Little Light Fantastic)
3. Boy Erased (Revelation)
4. Black Panther (All the Stars)
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings)

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns (Where The Lost Things Go) 7. RBG (I’ll Fight) 8. Dumplin (Girl in the Movies) 9. Ralph Breaks the Internet (A Place Called Slaughter Race) 10. The Hate U Give (We Won’t Move) 11. Suspiria (Suspirium) 12. Sorry to Bother You (OYAHYTT) 13. Quincy (Keep Reachin) 14. Widows (The Big Unknown) 15. Beautiful Boy (Treasure)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Minding the Gap
4. RBG
5. Free Solo

Next in line: 6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening 7. Shirkers 8. Crime + Punishment 9. On Her Shoulders 10. Charm City 11. Dark Money 12. Of Fathers and Sons 13. The Distant Barking of Dogs 14. Communion 15. The Silence of Others

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Roma
2. Capernaum
3. Cold War
4. Shoplifters
5. Never Look Away

Next in line: 6. Burning 7. The Guilty 8. Birds of Passage 9. Ayka 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Bao
2. Lost & Found
3. Bird Karma
4. Weekends
5. Age of Sail

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. End Game
2. Lifeboat
3. Black Sheep
4. Women of the Gulag
5. My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Caroline
2. Detainment
3. Skin
4. Mother
5. May Day


Stay tuned for an update early on in the new year!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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