Updated Academy Award predictions after the Golden Globe results and DGA/PGA nominations
Wow. It seems like as each and every single day goes by, something new pops up that threatens to upend the Oscar race. All this is happening as voters are filling out their ballots and turning in their choices for the next crop of Academy Award nominees. Whether it matters or not, we’ll have to wait and see, but it’s all floating in the air. At the same time, the Golden Globe results and various Guild nominations are out there as well, fighting for attention. How will voters deal with it all? Well, I have a hunch or two, as you’ll see below…
For this update, I’m ignoring controversies and looking at the precursors to fuel what I think the Academy will do. Strong recent showings for Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are notable in the Best Picture race. In Best Actress, we may well have a done deal with Glenn Close. The same may turn out to be true before long in Best Actor with Rami Malek. As for the two Supporting categories, well…they’re a mess. We’ll see what happens with those in the weeks to come, but they could look very differently than they do now, when we get to nomination morning, that’s for sure.
Here now are some updated predictions to reflect the latest precursor craziness:
BEST PICTURE
1. A Star Is Born
2. Green Book
3. Roma
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. The Favourite
7. Vice
8. Black Panther
9. A Quiet Place
10. First Man
Next in line: 11. Mary Poppins Returns 12. If Beale Street Could Talk 13. Crazy Rich Asians 14. Eighth Grade 15. First Reformed 16. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 17. Cold War 18. Boy Erased 19. Widows 20. On the Basis of Sex 21. The Front Runner 22. Mary Queen of Scots 23. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 24. The Hate U Give 25. Stan & Ollie 26. Sorry to Bother You 27. Beautiful Boy 28. Capernaum 29. Ben is Back 30. All is True
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
3. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
4. Peter Farrelly – Green Book
5. Adam McKay – Vice
Next in line: 6. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 7. Pawel Pawelkowski – Cold War 8. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite 9. Damien Chazelle – First Man 10. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk 11. Rob Marshall – Mary Poppins Returns 12. John Krasinski – A Quiet Place 13. Marielle Heller – Can You Ever Forgive Me? 14. Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade 15. Paul Schrader – First Reformed
BEST ACTOR
1. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
3. Christian Bale – Vice
4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman
Next in line: 6. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed 7. Ryan Gosling – First Man 8. Lucas Hedges – Ben is Back (or Boy Erased) 9. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun 10. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner 11. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie 12. Ben Foster – Leave No Trace 13. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate 14. Clint Eastwood – The Mule 15. Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here
BEST ACTRESS
1. Glenn Close – The Wife
2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Next in line: 6. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns 7. Julia Roberts – Ben is Back 8. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex 9. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife 10. Toni Collette – Hereditary 11. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots 12. Rosamund Pike – A Private War 13. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer 14. Regina Hall – Support the Girls 15. Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
2. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
5. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Next in line: 6. Sam Rockwell – Vice 7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 8. Robert Forster – What They Had 9. Russell Crowe – Boy Erased 10. Steve Carell – Vice 11. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (or Sorry to Bother You) 12. Tim Blake Nelson – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 13. Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick 14. Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite 15. Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams – Vice
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
5. Claire Foy – First Man
Next in line: 6. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place 7. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots 8. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased 9. Natalie Portman – Vox Lux 10. Marina de Tavira – Roma 11. Linda Cardellini – Green Book 12. Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns 13. Thomasin McKenzie – Leave No Trace 14. Elizabeth Debicki – Widows 15. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Vice
5. A Quiet Place
Next in line: 6. Eighth Grade 7. First Reformed 8. Sorry to Bother You 9. On the Basis of Sex 10. Ben is Back 11. Private Life 12. All is True 13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 14. Support the Girls 15. Hearts Beat Loud
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. BlackKklansman
2. A Star Is Born
3. Black Panther
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Next in line: 6. First Man 7. Boy Erased 8. Wildlife 9. The Hate U Give 10. Widows 11. Crazy Rich Asians 12. Mary Poppins Returns 13. Leave No Trace 14. Incredibles 2 15. Love, Simon
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
5. Mirai
Next in line: 6. Ruben Brandt, Collector 7. Smallfoot 8. The Grinch 9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 10. Early Man 11. Tito and the Birds! 12. Sherlock Gnomes 13. Lu Over the Wall 14. Night is Short, Walk on Girl 15. Fireworks
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. First Man
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Next in line: 6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Bohemian Rhapsody 9. If Beale Street Could Talk 10. A Star Is Born 11. BlacKkKlansman 12. Stan & Ollie 13. Isle of Dogs 14. Colette 15. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. First Man
2. Roma
3. A Star Is Born
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War
Next in line: 6. If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Mary Poppins Returns 8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. BlackKklansman 10. Black Panther 11. Vice 12. A Quiet Place 13. Widows 14. Never Look Away 15. Suspiria
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Next in line: 6. Colette 7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 8. If Beale Street Could Talk 9. First Man 10. Bohemian Rhapsody 11. A Wrinkle in Time 12. Crazy Rich Asians 13. All is True 14. On the Basis of Sex 15. Green Book
BEST FILM EDITING
1. A Star Is Born
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Roma
5. BlackKklansman
Next in line: 6. Green Book 7. Vice 8. The Favourite 9. A Quiet Place 10. If Beale Street Could Talk 11. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 12. 22 July 13. Searching 14. Widows 15. Mary Poppins Returns
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Vice
2. Black Panther
3. Stan & Ollie
Next in line: 4. Suspiria 5. Mary Queen of Scots 6. Border 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. N/A 9. N/A 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Black Panther
Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Roma 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp 11. Ready Player One 12. Deadpool 2 13. Solo: A Star Wars Story 14. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 15. Bumblebee
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Black Panther
Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Roma 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp 11. Ready Player One 12. Deadpool 2 13. Solo: A Star Wars Story 14. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 15. Bumblebee
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. Avengers: Infinity War
4. Ready Player One
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Next in line: 6. Ant-Man and the Wasp 7. Solo: A Star Wars Story 8. Welcome to Marwen 9. Christopher Robin 10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. First Man
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. BlackKklansman
5. Isle of Dogs
Next in line: 6. Black Panther 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Vice 9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 10. Annihilation 11. Ready Player One 12. A Quiet Place 13. Avengers: Infinity War 14. Crazy Rich Asians 15. The Death of Stalin
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. A Star Is Born (Shallow)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (Trip A Little Light Fantastic)
3. Boy Erased (Revelation)
4. Black Panther (All the Stars)
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings)
Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns (Where The Lost Things Go) 7. RBG (I’ll Fight) 8. Dumplin (Girl in the Movies) 9. Ralph Breaks the Internet (A Place Called Slaughter Race) 10. The Hate U Give (We Won’t Move) 11. Suspiria (Suspirium) 12. Sorry to Bother You (OYAHYTT) 13. Quincy (Keep Reachin) 14. Widows (The Big Unknown) 15. Beautiful Boy (Treasure)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Minding the Gap
4. RBG
5. Free Solo
Next in line: 6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening 7. Shirkers 8. Crime + Punishment 9. On Her Shoulders 10. Charm City 11. Dark Money 12. Of Fathers and Sons 13. Communion 14. The Distant Barking of Dogs 15. The Silence of Others
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
1. Roma
2. Capernaum
3. Cold War
4. Shoplifters
5. Never Look Away
Next in line: 6. Burning 7. The Guilty 8. Birds of Passage 9. Ayka 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Bao
2. Lost & Found
3. Bird Karma
4. Weekends
5. Age of Sail
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. End Game
2. Lifeboat
3. Black Sheep
4. Women of the Gulag
5. My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. Caroline
2. Detainment
3. Skin
4. Mother
5. May Day
Stay tuned for another update next week!
