Final Academy Award Predictions Before The Nominees Are Announced


It all has come down to this. On Tuesday morning, the Academy will announce their Oscar nominations. As such, it’s time for final predictions. The Academy Awards this year will be a unique one, that’s for sure, so expect the nominees to largely follow along that path. What follows today is months of work. Slowly but surely, I’ve listen to members of the Academy, studied the precursors, and played some hunches. All that has led to my final predictions update before it goes down bright and early on Tuesday morning. There’s no way to get them all right, but I think these are pretty solid predictions, if I do say so myself.

As you’ll see below, I have A Star Is Born still leading the way, both in terms of nomination totals and also in terms of still being the one to beat in Best Picture. Roma is hot on its heels, don’t get me wrong, but the race is still far from over. Also notable is that I have First Man and A Quiet Place making it into the lineup, while Black Panther falls short (technically I have it in at number ten, in case I’m wrong, but that’s just me hedging my bets). The rest? Well, you can see that now…

Here we go. Final Oscar predictions locked in. Behold:


BEST PICTURE

1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. The Favourite
7. Vice
8. A Quiet Place
9. First Man
10. Black Panther

Next in line: 11. If Beale Street Could Talk 12. Cold War 13. Mary Poppins Returns 14. Crazy Rich Asians 15. Eighth Grade 16. First Reformed 17. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 18. Boy Erased 19. Widows 20. On the Basis of Sex 21. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 22. Mary Queen of Scots 23. The Front Runner 24. The Hate U Give 25. Stan & Ollie 26. Sorry to Bother You 27. Beautiful Boy 28. Capernaum 29. Ben is Back 30. All is True

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
3. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
4. Adam McKay – Vice
5. Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War

Next in line: 6. Peter Farrelly – Green Book 7. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite 8. Damien Chazelle – First Man 9. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 10. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk 11. Rob Marshall – Mary Poppins Returns 12. John Krasinski – A Quiet Place 13. Debra Granik – Leave No Trace 14. Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade 15. Paul Schrader – First Reformed

BEST ACTOR

1. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale – Vice
3. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

Next in line: 6. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate 7. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed 8. Ryan Gosling – First Man 9. Lucas Hedges – Ben is Back (or Boy Erased) 10. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun 11. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner 12. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie 13. Clint Eastwood – The Mule 14. Ben Foster – Leave No Trace 15. Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife
2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Next in line: 6. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns 7. Toni Collette – Hereditary 8. Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade 9. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex 10. Viola Davis – Widows 11. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots 12. Rosamund Pike – A Private War 13. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer 14. Julia Roberts – Ben is Back 15. Regina Hall – Support the Girls

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
2. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
5. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy

Next in line: 6. Sam Rockwell – Vice 7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 8. Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk 9. Steven Yeun – Burning 10. Robert Forster – What They Had 11. Russell Crowe – Boy Erased 12. Steve Carell – Vice 13. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (or Sorry to Bother You) 14. Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite 15. Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Amy Adams – Vice
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
5. Claire Foy – First Man

Next in line: 6. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place 7. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots 8. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased 9. Linda Cardellini – Green Book 10. Marina de Tavira – Roma 11. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace 12. Natalie Portman – Vox Lux 13. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians 14. Elizabeth Debicki – Widows 15. Zoe Kazan – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Vice
5. A Quiet Place

Next in line: 6. First Reformed 7. Eighth Grade 8. Bohemian Rhapsody 9. Sorry To Bother You 10. Ben is Back 11. Private Life 12. On the Basis of Sex 13. Cold War 14. Support the Girls 15. Hearts Beat Loud

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. BlackKklansman
3. A Star Is Born
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. First Man 7. Leave No Trace 8. Crazy Rich Asians 9. The Hate U Give 10. Wildlife 11. Mary Poppins Returns 12. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 14. Widows 15. The Death of Stalin

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Mirai
5. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2

Next in line: 6. Ruben Brandt, Collector 7. Smallfoot 8. The Grinch 9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 10. Early Man 11. Tito and the Birds! 12. Sherlock Gnomes 13. Lu Over the Wall 14. Night is Short, Walk on Girl 15. Fireworks

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. First Man
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 7. Roma 8. Bohemian Rhapsody 9. BlacKkKlansman 10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 11. Crazy Rich Asians 12. If Beale Street Could Talk 13. A Star Is Born 14. Colette 15. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. First Man
2. Roma
3. A Star Is Born
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War

Next in line: 6. If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Mary Poppins Returns 8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. BlackKklansman 10. Black Panther 11. Vice 12. A Quiet Place 13. Widows 14. Never Look Away 15. Suspiria

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Colette 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. Crazy Rich Asians 9. First Man 10. If Beale Street Could Talk 11. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 12. A Wrinkle in Time 13. All is True 14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 15. Green Book

BEST FILM EDITING

1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. BlackKklansman
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Vice 8. Green Book 9. A Quiet Place 10. The Favourite 11. If Beale Street Could Talk 12. 22 July 13. Searching 14. Widows 15. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Vice
2. Black Panther
3. Bohemian Rhapsody

Next in line: 4. Border 5. Stan & Ollie 6. Suspiria 7. Mary Queen of Scots 8. N/A 9. N/A 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Roma 8. Avengers: Infinity War 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp 11. Ready Player One 12. Deadpool 2 13. Solo: A Star Wars Story 14. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 15. Bumblebee

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns 7. Roma 8. Avengers: Infinity War 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp 11. Ready Player One 12. Deadpool 2 13. Solo: A Star Wars Story 14. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 15. Aquaman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 6. Welcome to Marwen 7. Solo: A Star Wars Story 8. Ant-Man and the Wasp 9. Christopher Robin 10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. BlackKklansman
5. Isle of Dogs

Next in line: 6. Black Panther 7. A Quiet Place 8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. Ready Player One 10. Vice 11. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 12. Annihilation 13. Avengers: Infinity War 14. Crazy Rich Asians 15. The Death of Stalin

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born (Shallow)
2. Black Panther (All the Stars)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (Trip A Little Light Fantastic)
4. Boy Erased (Revelation)
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings)

Next in line: 6. Mary Poppins Returns (Where The Lost Things Go) 7. RBG (I’ll Fight) 8. Dumplin (Girl in the Movies) 9. Ralph Breaks the Internet (A Place Called Slaughter Race) 10. Sorry to Bother You (OYAHYTT) 11. Suspiria (Suspirium) 12. The Hate U Give (We Won’t Move) 13. Quincy (Keep Reachin) 14. Widows (The Big Unknown) 15. Beautiful Boy (Treasure)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Minding the Gap
4. RBG
5. Free Solo

Next in line: 6. Shirkers 7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening 8. Crime + Punishment 9. On Her Shoulders 10. Charm City 11. Dark Money 12. Of Fathers and Sons 13. Communion 14. The Distant Barking of Dogs 15. The Silence of Others

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Capernaum
4. Shoplifters
5. Never Look Away

Next in line: 6. Burning 7. The Guilty 8. Birds of Passage 9. Ayka 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Bao
2. Lost & Found
3. Bird Karma
4. Weekends
5. Age of Sail

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. End Game
2. Lifeboat
3. Black Sheep
4. Women of the Gulag
5. My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Detainment
2. Caroline
3. Skin
4. Mother
5. May Day


Stay tuned for the nominations on Tuesday!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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