Updated Oscar Predictions For May

As Spring begins to rear its head and the Cannes Film Festival gets underway, thoughts of the awards season to come starts bubbling under the surface. We’re currently about a week out from knowing what the year has in Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, as it debuts at Cannes, while plenty of studios are beginning to align their presumed show ponies. All this makes it a perfect time to update my predictions and see where the contenders stand right now, here in the middle of May. In a few weeks time, we’ll know more, but this particular moment is prime real estate for a new look at the races.

What you’ll see below is an across the board tinkering with Oscar predictions. Chiefly, it’s a reflection of potentially the breakthrough year that Netflix might have. After coming within an eyelash of Best Picture last year, they have over a half dozen possible contenders for a citation in the category. Of course, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman is suspected to be the big bet, but rumors have Noah Baumbach’s currently untitled latest film being a really big deal (perhaps even putting Laura Dern, Adam Driver, and Scarlett Johansson in contention to win some major awards). If so, that could make for a potent one two punch with voters. Beyond the streaming service, something like Sam Mendes’ war epic 1917 has a lot of potential. Read on to see more…

Here now is a new look at potential Academy Award nominations:

BEST PICTURE

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
5. The Goldfinch
6. 1917
7. Knives Out
8. Lucy In The Sky
9. Harriet
10. The Report

Next in line: 11. Untitled Roger Ailes Project 12. Rocketman 13. The Laundromat 14. Ford v. Ferrari 15. Little Women 16. Cats 17. Ad Astra 18. The King 19. Toy Story 4 20. Star Wars Episode IX

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Noah Baumbach – Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
4. Marielle Heller – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Rian Johnson – Knives Out

Next in line: 6. Sam Mendes – 1917 7. John Crowley – The Goldfinch 8. Scott Z. Burns – The Report 9. Noah Hawley – Lucy in the Sky 10. James Gray – Ad Astra

BEST ACTOR

1. Timothée Chalamet – The King
2. Adam Driver – The Report (or Untitled Noah Baumbach Project)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name
5. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Next in line: 6. Taron Egerton – Rocketman 7. Mark Ruffalo – Untitled Todd Haynes Project 8. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 9. Jonathan Pryce – The Pope 10. Ian McKellen – The Good Liar

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
2. Amy Adams – The Woman in the Window
3. Natalie Portman – Lucy In The Sky
4. Scarlett Johansson – Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
5. Alfre Woodard – Clemency

Next in line: 6. Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go Bernadette? 7. Meryl Streep – The Laundromat 8. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women 9. Helen Mirren – The Good Liar 10. Lupita Nyong’o – Us

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Al Pacino – The Irishman
2. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. John Lithgow – Untitled Roger Ailes Project
4. Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Ben Mendelsohn – The King

Next in line: 6. Joe Pesci – The Irishman 7. Wesley Snipes – Dolemite Is My Name 8. John Hamm – Lucy In The Sky 9. Leslie Odom, Jr. – Harriet 10. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Annette Bening – The Report
2. Laura Dern – Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
3. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch
5. Charlize Theron – Untitled Roger Ailes Project

Next in line: 6. Zazie Beetz – Lucy In The Sky 7. Emma Watson – Little Women 8. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey 9. Janelle Monae – Harriet 10. Dakota Fanning – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Report
4. Knives Out
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Next in line: 6. Dolemite Is My Name 7. The Pope 8. The Farewell 9. Lucy In The Sky 10. Ad Astra

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Irishman
2. The Goldfinch
3. Little Women
4. The Woman in the Window
5. Toy Story 4

Next in line: 6. Jojo Rabbit 7. The Laundromat 8. Where’d You Go, Bernadette? 9. The Last Thing He Wanted 10. Avengers: Endgame

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. Klaus
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Ad Astra

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Ad Astra
4. The Irishman
5. The Goldfinch

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Rocketman
3. Downton Abbey
4. The Irishman
5. Dolemite Is My Name

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Star Wars Episode IX

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Rocketman
2. Cats
3. Dolemite Is My Name

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Rocketman
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Cats
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Star Wars Episode IX
3. Ad Astra
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Rocketman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Star Wars Episode IX
4. The Lion King
5. Ad Astra

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Ad Astra
2. Star Wars Episode IX
3. The Irishman
4. Harriet
5. The Goldfinch

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Knock Down the House
2. Apollo 11
3. Wrestle
4. Ask Dr. Ruth
5. Love, Antosha

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

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5. ???

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for an update to these early predictions at some point early next month!