Updated Oscar Predictions For Early September

With the Toronto International Film Festival upon us, as well as the Telluride Film Festival and Venice Film Festival in our rearview mirror (not to mention the New York Film Festival coming soon), the awards season is here, hot and heavy. As such, new Academy Award predictions are needed. So, that’s just what I’ve done. Festivals aren’t the only thing that factors into these, but for today, I figured I’d lean heavily on them and see where it took me. Read on for more.

Changes abound here, as you’ll be able to see shortly. Telluride and Venice have shaken up the race, to be sure. Today, I’m experimenting with a huge haul for Marriage Story, a surge forward for The Two Popes, and a first appearance among the predicted nominees for Joker, in one category at least. Toronto will upend these again soon, so look for another update before the end of the month. For now, this is how I see the awards season going at the onset of September and the fall. It’s almost a sure thing that they’ll look rather different in a few weeks…

Here now are some (temporarily) up to date Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. Parasite
6. The Two Popes
7. 1917
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. The Farewell
10. Ad Astra

Next in line: 11. Waves 12. Joker 13. Dark Waters 14. Bombshell 15. Harriet 16. Dolemite Is My Name 17. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18. Little Women 19. Lucy In The Sky 20. The Goldfinch 21. A Hidden Life 22. The Report 23. Knives Out 24. The Laundromat 25. Rocketman 26. Cats 27. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 28. Uncut Gems 29. Us 30. Avengers: Endgame

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
4. James Mangold – Ford v. Ferrari
5. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

Next in line: 6. Sam Mendes – 1917 7. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit 8. James Gray – Ad Astra 9. Lulu Wang – The Farewell 10. Todd Haynes – Dark Waters

BEST ACTOR

1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
5. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Next in line: 6. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 7. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems 8. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 9. Mark Ruffalo – Dark Waters 10. Matt Damon – Ford v. Ferrari

BEST ACTRESS

1. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
2. Renée Zellweger – Judy
3. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
4. Alfre Woodard – Clemency
5. Kristin Stewart – Seberg

Next in line: 6. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women 7. Natalie Portman – Lucy In The Sky 8. Meryl Streep – The Laundromat (Could Go Supporting) 9. Awkwafina – The Farewell 10. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell (Could Go Supporting)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari (Could Go Lead)
4. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
5. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

Next in line: 6. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 7. Joe Pesci – The Irishman 8. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 9. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse 10. Wesley Snipes – Dolemite Is My Name

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
3. Annette Bening – The Report
4. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey

Next in line: 6. Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch 7. Anna Paquin – The Irishman 8. Jennifer Hudson – Cats 9. Emma Watson – Little Women 10. Charlize Theron – Bombshell (Could Go Lead)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Two Popes
4. The Farewell
5. Parasite

Next in line: 6. Waves 7. Dolemite Is My Name 7. 8. Ad Astra 9. The Report 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. The Irishman
3. Ford v. Ferrari
4. Little Women
5. Dark Waters

Next in line: 6. Motherless Brooklyn 7. The Goldfinch 8. The Laundromat 9. Downton Abbey 10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. Klaus
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Next in line: 6. I Lost My Body 7. Okko’s Inn 8. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 9. The Secret Life of Pets 2 10. Shaun the Sheep 2

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Ad Astra
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. Dolemite Is My Name

Next in line: 6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 7. Cats 8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 9. The Goldfinch 10. Avengers: Endgame

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. Ad Astra
5. A Hidden Life

Next in line: 6. The Goldfinch 7. Ford v. Ferrari 8. Parasite 9. Marriage Story 10. Jojo Rabbit

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Rocketman
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. The Irishman 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. The King 10. Dumbo

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Ford v. Ferrari
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Next in line: 6. Ad Astra 7. 1917 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. Knives Out 10. The Report

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Rocketman
2. Cats
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Next in line: 6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 7. Gemini Man 8. 1917 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. The Dead Don’t Die

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Rocketman
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Cats
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. Ford v. Ferrari 8. 1917 9. Toy Story 4 10. The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Ad Astra
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. Rocketman

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 8. Spider-Man: Far From Home 9. 1917 10. Captain Marvel

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Lion King
2. The Irishman
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra

Next in line: 6. Spider-Man: Far From Home 7. Gemini Man 8. Captain Marvel 9. The Aeronauts 10. Aladdin

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Ad Astra
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Marriage Story
4. The Irishman
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Harriet 7. The Goldfinch 8. Ford v. Ferrari 9. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 10. Toy Story 4

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Frozen 2
2. Rocketman
3. Aladdin
4. The Lion King
5. Motherless Brooklyn

Next in line: 6. Toy Story 4 7. Cats 8. Her Smell 9. Wild Rose 10. Teen Spirit

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Knock Down the House
2. Apollo 11
3. American Factory
4. Cold Case Hammarskjöld
5. Ask Dr. Ruth

Next in line: 6. Wrestle 7. Maiden 8. Marianne & Leonard: Words Of Love 9. Love, Antosha 10. Hail Satan?

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4. Monos
5. The Whistlers

Next in line: 6. The Projectionist 7. The Invisible Life of Eurídice Gusmão 8. Our Mothers 9. Instinct 10. Dear Son

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for another update later on this month!