Updated Oscar Predictions For Late September


As you’re reading this, the New York Film Festival is officially getting underway, with the World Premiere of Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. Press like yours truly have been at screenings (called P&I screenings) for the last two weeks, but the fest is open to the public as of today. Look for my thoughts on social media this afternoon/evening when the official embargo lifts of Scorsese’s epic, but right now, a new set of Oscar picks are here! Below you’ll see updated Academy Award predictions that include how I see that movie faring (I’ll be updating this post in the afternoon to reflect any Irishman related movement). Just know that this time around, I’ve tinkered again, in light of recently having seen potential contenders like Dolemite Is My Name and Parasite (believe the hype about the latter). For now, I’ll just dive into my picks for you, with more commentary on the race to come very soon…

Here you go, a new set of Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Marriage Story
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Parasite
6. Ford v. Ferrari
7. The Two Popes
8. Waves
9. The Farewell
10. Joker

Next in line: 11. 1917 12. Judy 13. Knives Out 14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 15. Dark Waters 16. Bombshell 17. Ad Astra 18. Dolemite Is My Name 19. A Hidden Life 20. Just Mercy 21. Cats 22. Rocketman 23. Little Women 24. Harriet 25. The Laundromat 26. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 27. Us 28. Avengers: Endgame 29. Booksmart 30. The Peanut Butter Falcon

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
4. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
5. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

Next in line: 6. James Mangold – Ford v. Ferrari 7. Sam Mendes – 1917 8. Lulu Wang – The Farewell 9. Trey Edward Shults – Waves 10. Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes

BEST ACTOR

1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
2. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
5. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Next in line: 6. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory 7. Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari (Could Go Supporting) 8. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 9. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 10. Mark Ruffalo – Dark Waters

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
4. Alfre Woodard – Clemency
5. Awkwafina – The Farewell

Next in line: 6. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women 7. Charlize Theron – Bombshell 8. Kristin Stewart – Seberg 9. Lupita Nyong’o – Us 10. Meryl Streep – The Laundromat (Could Go Supporting)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
4. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

Next in line: 6. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy 7. Joe Pesci – The Irishman 8. Tracy Letts – Ford v. Ferrari 9. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse 10. Alan Alda – Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
3. Annette Bening – The Report
4. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
5. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Next in line: 6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – Dolemite Is My Name 7. Charlize Theron – Bombshell (Could Go Lead) 8. Anne Hathaway – Dark Waters 9. Emma Watson – Little Women 10. Anna Paquin – The Irishman

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. The Farewell
4. Parasite
5. Waves

Next in line: 6. Knives Out 7. Booksmart 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. Us 10. Ad Astra

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. The Irishman
3. The Two Popes
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. Judy

Next in line: 6. Little Women 7. The Laundromat 8. Dark Waters 9. Just Mercy 10. Motherless Brooklyn

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. Klaus
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Next in line: 6. Abominable 7. I Lost My Body 8. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 9. The Secret Life of Pets 2 10. Shaun the Sheep 2

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Ad Astra
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. Dolemite Is My Name

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 8. 1917 9. Parasite 10. Avengers: Endgame

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. The Irishman
4. Ad Astra
5. A Hidden Life

Next in line: 6. Parasite 7. Ford v. Ferrari 8. The Two Popes 9. Marriage Story 10. Jojo Rabbit

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. The Irishman 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. The King 10. Dumbo

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Ford v. Ferrari
4. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Next in line: 6. Ad Astra 7. 1917 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. Knives Out 10. The Report

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Rocketman
2. Cats
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Next in line: 6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 7. Gemini Man 8. 1917 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. Downton Abbey

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Rocketman
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Cats
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. Ford v. Ferrari 8. 1917 9. Toy Story 4 10. The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Ad Astra
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. Rocketman

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Spider-Man: Far From Home 9. 1917 10. Gemini Man

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Lion King
2. The Irishman
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra

Next in line: 6. Spider-Man: Far From Home 7. Gemini Man 8. The Aeronauts 9. Aladdin 10. Captain Marvel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Ad Astra
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Marriage Story
4. The Irishman
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Harriet 7. Ford v. Ferrari 8. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. Toy Story 4

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Frozen 2
2. Rocketman
3. Aladdin
4. The Lion King
5. Motherless Brooklyn

Next in line: 6. Toy Story 4 7. Cats 8. Her Smell 9. Wild Rose 10. Teen Spirit

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Knock Down the House
2. Apollo 11
3. American Factory
4. Cold Case Hammarskjöld
5. Ask Dr. Ruth

Next in line: 6. Wrestle 7. Maiden 8. Marianne & Leonard: Words Of Love 9. Love, Antosha 10. Hail Satan?

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. The Whistlers
5. The Projectionist

Next in line: 6. Monos 7. The Invisible Life of Eurídice Gusmão 8. Our Mothers 9. Instinct 10. Dear Son

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for a new set of predictions early next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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