Updated Oscar Predictions For Early November


In just about two months, the Academy Award nominations will be announced. Between now and then, it’s going to be a mad dash, what with the shortened Phase Two this year, to establish movies and performances as the ones to beat. This will lead to one of two things happening. Either the early frontrunners will hold on, leading to a somewhat boring season (decidedly possible). Or, there will be utter chaos, leading to some major surprises (just as likely a scenario). As we spend the next several updates trying to figure that out, we have updated predictions to share, with various small changes found throughout…

I’m going to be discussing individual Oscar categories more in depth during the next few weeks, but right now, let us talk about Best Picture. At the moment, there seems to be three locks to be nominated in The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood. Barring something unexpected, Parasite will join those films too, creating a top four that can actually contend for the win. Then, there’s likely nominees like Bombshell and The Two Popes, but both will need precursor attention. That leaves a few remaining slots, with contenders like 1917, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, Just Mercy, Rocketman, and Waves competing to fill those spots. You can see what I think will happen below. Enjoy.

Take a look now at some new predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Marriage Story
5. Bombshell
6. The Two Popes
7. 1917
8. Judy
9. Ford v Ferrari
10. Just Mercy

Next in line: 11. The Farewell 12. Jojo Rabbit 13. Waves 14. Rocketman 15. Knives Out 16. Joker 17. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18. Little Women 19. Dark Waters 20. Richard Jewell 21. Dolemite Is My Name 22. Cats 23. A Hidden Life 24. Booksmart 25. Us 26. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 27. Harriet 28. The Peanut Butter Falcon 29. Ad Astra 30. Avengers: Endgame

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
2. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
4. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
5. Sam Mendes – 1917

Next in line: 6. Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes 7. James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari 8. Lulu Wang – The Farewell 9. Trey Edward Shults – Waves 10. Greta Gerwig – Little Women

BEST ACTOR

1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
2. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
5. Robert De Niro – The Irishman

Next in line: 6. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory 7. Taron Egerton – Rocketman 8. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 9. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems 10. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Lupita Nyong’o – Us

Next in line: 6. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 7. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet 8. Awkwafina – The Farewell 9. Ana de Armas – Knives Out 10. Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
4. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
5. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Next in line: 6. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 7. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy 8. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit 9. John Lithgow – Bombshell 10. Rob Morgan – Just Mercy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
3. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood)
4. Florence Pugh – Little Women
5. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey

Next in line: 6. Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit 7. Annette Bening – The Report 8. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – Dolemite Is My Name 9. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell 10. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Bombshell
5. Knives Out

Next in line: 6. The Farewell 7. Booksmart 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. Waves 10. Us

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Two Popes
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Irishman
4. Little Women
5. Just Mercy

Next in line: 6. Ford v Ferrari 7. Judy 8. Dark Waters 9. Richard Jewell 10. Joker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Spies in Disguise 8. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 9. Abominable 10. The Secret Life of Pets 2

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Downton Abbey
4. Parasite
5. Cats

Next in line: 6. Little Women 7. Ad Astra 8. The Two Popes 9. 1917 10. Dolemite Is My Name

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Irishman
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ad Astra
5. Parasite

Next in line: 6. Ford v Ferrari 7. A Hidden Life 8. Waves 9. Marriage Story 10. Jojo Rabbit

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. Dumbo 10. The Irishman

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Next in line: 6. Ford v Ferrari 7. Waves 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. 1917 10. Jojo Rabbit

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Rocketman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Judy
4. Joker
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Next in line: 6. Dolemite Is My Name 7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 8. 1917 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. Downton Abbey

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

Next in line: 6. 1917 7. Cats 8. Rocletman 9. The Irishman 10. The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. Spider-Man: Far From Home

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra

Next in line: 6. The Aeronauts 7. Gemini Man 8. Spider-Man: Far From Home 9. Aladdin 10. Captain Marvel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Waves
3. Marriage Story
4. Ad Astra
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Ford v Ferrari 7. The Aeronauts 8. 1917 9. Harriet 10. Avengers: Endgame

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Frozen 2
2. Rocketman
3. Aladdin
4. Toy Story 4
5. Cats

Next in line: 6. Harriet 7. The Lion King 8. Motherless Brooklyn 9. Bombshell 10. The Black Godfather

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. American Factory
2. Apollo 11
3. Knock Down the House
4. The Cave
5. The Biggest Little Farm

Next in line: 6. Ask Dr. Ruth 7. One Child Nation 8. Maiden 9. Cold Case Hammarskjöld 10. Western Stars

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. Monos

Next in line: 6. The Whistlers 7. Beanpole 8. The Chambermaid 9. The Traitor 10. Invisible Life

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???


Stay tuned for another update in the next week or two!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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