Updated Oscar Predictions For Mid November
On Thursday, the Independent Spirit Awards will unveil their nominations. While that precursor doesn’t directly tie in with how Oscar voters cast their ballots, it does provide a window into what some of the major indie contenders might be. In that realm, it’ll be interesting to see what the smaller scale opposition to the likes of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood is shaping up to be. Of course, budgets and such will play a role in regards to what is eligible. Still, it’s something to pay attention to. To that end, an update to Academy Award predictions, serving as a table setter of sorts, is below!
Something to take note of here this time around. In the top ten, I have five of the slots being taken up by two distributors, one of which is quite new on the scene and still getting a trio of nods. Three spots in Picture rarely happens, so two studios doing it (Netflix and Sony have the best odds) is unheard of. That mainly means there’s still a ton to be decided here. The noms in this category are certainly subject to change in the coming weeks, that’s for sure.
BEST PICTURE
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. 1917
7. Bombshell
8. The Two Popes
9. Joker
10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Next in line: 11. Ford v Ferrari 12. The Farewell 13. Little Women 14. Judy 15. Waves 16. Rocketman 17. Knives Out 18. Just Mercy 19. Richard Jewell 20. Dolemite Is My Name 21. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 22. The Banker 23. Dark Waters 24. A Hidden Life 25. Booksmart 26. Us 27. Harriet 28. The Peanut Butter Falcon 29. Ad Astra 30. Avengers: Endgame
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
2. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
4. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
5. Sam Mendes – 1917
Next in line: 6. Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes 7. James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari 8. Marielle Heller – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 9. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit 10. Greta Gerwig – Little Women
BEST ACTOR
1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
5. Robert De Niro – The Irishman
Next in line: 6. Taron Egerton – Rocketman 7. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 8. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari 9. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory 9. 10. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
1. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
2. Renée Zellweger – Judy
3. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Next in line: 6. Lupita Nyong’o – Us 7. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 8. Awkwafina – The Farewell 9. Ana de Armas – Knives Out 10. Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
4. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
5. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Next in line: 6. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 7. John Lithgow – Bombshell 8. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy 9. Wesley Snipes – Dolemite Is My Name 10. Rob Morgan – Just Mercy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood)
3. Florence Pugh – Little Women
4. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
5. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey
Next in line: 6. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit 7. Annette Bening – The Report 8. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – Dolemite Is My Name 9. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell 10. Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Bombshell
5. Knives Out
Next in line: 6. The Farewell 7. Booksmart 8. Waves 9. Ford v Ferrari 10. Us
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Two Popes
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Irishman
4. Little Women
5. Joker
Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Just Mercy 8. Dark Waters 9. Richard Jewell 10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Abominable 8. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 9. Spies in Disguise 10. The Secret Life of Pets 2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Downton Abbey
4. Parasite
5. The Two Popes
Next in line: 6. Little Women 7. The Irishman 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. 1917 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Parasite
Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Ad Astra 8. A Hidden Life 9. Little Women 10. Waves
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women
Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. Dumbo 10. The Irishman
BEST FILM EDITING
1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Marriage Story
5. Ford v Ferrari
Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. Waves 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. 1917 10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. Joker
Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. Dolemite Is My Name 8. Joker 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
Next in line: 6. 1917 7. Cats 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. The Lion King
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. 1917
Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. Spider-Man: Far From Home
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra
Next in line: 6. The Aeronauts 7. Gemini Man 8. Spider-Man: Far From Home 9. Aladdin 10. Captain Marvel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Marriage Story
3. Little Women
4. Ad Astra
5. Waves
Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Ford v Ferrari 8. 1917 9. Harriet 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
2. Cats (Beautiful Ghosts)
3. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
4. Harriet (Stand Up)
5. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)
Next in line: 6. Aladdin (Speechless) 7. The Lion King (Spirit) 8. Motherless Brooklyn (Daily Battles) 9. Bombshell (One Little Soldier) 10. Wild Rose (Glasgow)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. The Biggest Little Farm
4. One Child Nation
5. Ask Dr. Ruth
Next in line: 6. The Cave 7. Knock Down the House 8. Maiden 9. Cold Case Hammarskjöld 10. Western Stars
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. The Traitor
Next in line: 6. The Whistlers 7. Beanpole 8. Monos 9. The Chambermaid 10. Invisible Life
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???
Stay tuned for another update in the next week or two!