Updated Oscar Predictions For Mid November

On Thursday, the Independent Spirit Awards will unveil their nominations. While that precursor doesn’t directly tie in with how Oscar voters cast their ballots, it does provide a window into what some of the major indie contenders might be. In that realm, it’ll be interesting to see what the smaller scale opposition to the likes of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood is shaping up to be. Of course, budgets and such will play a role in regards to what is eligible. Still, it’s something to pay attention to. To that end, an update to Academy Award predictions, serving as a table setter of sorts, is below!

Something to take note of here this time around. In the top ten, I have five of the slots being taken up by two distributors, one of which is quite new on the scene and still getting a trio of nods. Three spots in Picture rarely happens, so two studios doing it (Netflix and Sony have the best odds) is unheard of. That mainly means there’s still a ton to be decided here. The noms in this category are certainly subject to change in the coming weeks, that’s for sure.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. 1917
7. Bombshell
8. The Two Popes
9. Joker
10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Next in line: 11. Ford v Ferrari 12. The Farewell 13. Little Women 14. Judy 15. Waves 16. Rocketman 17. Knives Out 18. Just Mercy 19. Richard Jewell 20. Dolemite Is My Name 21. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 22. The Banker 23. Dark Waters 24. A Hidden Life 25. Booksmart 26. Us 27. Harriet 28. The Peanut Butter Falcon 29. Ad Astra 30. Avengers: Endgame

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
2. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
4. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
5. Sam Mendes – 1917

Next in line: 6. Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes 7. James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari 8. Marielle Heller – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 9. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit 10. Greta Gerwig – Little Women

BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
5. Robert De Niro – The Irishman

Next in line: 6. Taron Egerton – Rocketman 7. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 8. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari 9. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory 9. 10. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

BEST ACTRESS

1. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
2. Renée Zellweger – Judy
3. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Next in line: 6. Lupita Nyong’o – Us 7. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 8. Awkwafina – The Farewell 9. Ana de Armas – Knives Out 10. Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
4. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
5. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Next in line: 6. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 7. John Lithgow – Bombshell 8. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy 9. Wesley Snipes – Dolemite Is My Name 10. Rob Morgan – Just Mercy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood)
3. Florence Pugh – Little Women
4. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
5. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey

Next in line: 6. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit 7. Annette Bening – The Report 8. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – Dolemite Is My Name 9. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell 10. Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Bombshell
5. Knives Out

Next in line: 6. The Farewell 7. Booksmart 8. Waves 9. Ford v Ferrari 10. Us

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Two Popes
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Irishman
4. Little Women
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Just Mercy 8. Dark Waters 9. Richard Jewell 10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Abominable 8. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 9. Spies in Disguise 10. The Secret Life of Pets 2

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Downton Abbey
4. Parasite
5. The Two Popes

Next in line: 6. Little Women 7. The Irishman 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. 1917 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Parasite

Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Ad Astra 8. A Hidden Life 9. Little Women 10. Waves

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. Dumbo 10. The Irishman

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Marriage Story
5. Ford v Ferrari

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. Waves 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. 1917 10. Jojo Rabbit

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. Dolemite Is My Name 8. Joker 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

Next in line: 6. 1917 7. Cats 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. Spider-Man: Far From Home

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra

Next in line: 6. The Aeronauts 7. Gemini Man 8. Spider-Man: Far From Home 9. Aladdin 10. Captain Marvel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Marriage Story
3. Little Women
4. Ad Astra
5. Waves

Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Ford v Ferrari 8. 1917 9. Harriet 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
2. Cats (Beautiful Ghosts)
3. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
4. Harriet (Stand Up)
5. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)

Next in line: 6. Aladdin (Speechless) 7. The Lion King (Spirit) 8. Motherless Brooklyn (Daily Battles) 9. Bombshell (One Little Soldier) 10. Wild Rose (Glasgow)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. The Biggest Little Farm
4. One Child Nation
5. Ask Dr. Ruth

Next in line: 6. The Cave 7. Knock Down the House 8. Maiden 9. Cold Case Hammarskjöld 10. Western Stars

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. The Traitor

Next in line: 6. The Whistlers 7. Beanpole 8. Monos 9. The Chambermaid 10. Invisible Life

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for another update in the next week or two!