Updated Oscar Predictions For Late November

I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving yesterday! Now, filled with turkey and stuffing, we turn our attention back to the Academy Awards. As mentioned in our last post, voters are almost assuredly pouring over screeners during this break, so it’s a pivotal time in the race. Assuming members of the Academy have access to everything that matters (unless you’re convinced Cats or Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is going to upend the season at the last moment), it’s just a matter of trying to read the tea leaves and figure out what they like best. Today, that’s what I’ve attempted to do in the newest update to my Oscar picks.

As you’ll see below, predictions have been updated to reflect the first screenings for 1917 and Richard Jewell, both of which I’ve seen. For the former, not only are all of the predicted categories basically safe bets now, there’s a chance that it’s in line for more wins than simply Roger Deakins in Best Cinematography. As for the latter, it really just depends on how much voters are in a Clint Eastwood mood. Time will tell, but right now, it does seem like a race between The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood. For my money, it’s a pick em here in late November.

Here now are some new Academy Award predictions to sift through:

BEST PICTURE

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. 1917
4. Marriage Story
5. Parasite
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Joker
8. Bombshell
9. The Two Popes
10. Ford v Ferrari

Next in line: 11. Little Women 12. Richard Jewell 13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 14. The Farewell 15. Knives Out 16. Judy 17. Just Mercy 18. Rocketman 19. Waves 20. Honey Boy 21. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 22. Dolemite Is My Name 23. Hustlers 24. A Hidden Life 25. Cats 26. Dark Waters 27. Harriet 28. The Peanut Butter Falcon 29. Booksmart 30. Avengers: Endgame

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes – 1917
4. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
5. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story

Next in line: 6. James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari 7. Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes 8. Todd Phillips – Joker 9. Greta Gerwig – Little Women 10. Clint Eastwood – Richard Jewell

BEST ACTOR

1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
2. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
5. Taron Egerton – Rocketman

Next in line: 6. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 7. Paul Walter Houser – Richard Jewell 8. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 9. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari 10. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Next in line: 6. Lupita Nyong’o – Us 7. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 8. Awkwafina – The Farewell 9. Ana de Armas – Knives Out 10. Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
5. Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell

Next in line: 6. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes 7. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 8. Shia LaBeouf – Honey Boy 9. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse 10. John Lithgow – Bombshell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood)
3. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
4. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
5. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

Next in line: 6. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey 7. Florence Pugh – Little Women 8. Taylor Russell – Waves 9. Annette Bening – The Report 10. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Knives Out
5. Honey Boy

Next in line: 6. The Farewell 7. Bombshell 8. Ford v Ferrari 9. 1917 10. Us

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Two Popes
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Irishman
4. Little Women
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. Richard Jewell 7. Judy 8. Just Mercy 9. Dark Waters 10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 5
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
5. Missing Link

Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Abominable 8. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 9. Spies in Disguise 10. The Secret Life of Pets 2

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. The Two Popes

Next in line: 6. Downton Abbey 7. Joker 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. The Irishman 10. Little Women

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. A Hidden Life 7. Parasite 8. Ad Astra 9. Little Women 10. Waves

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. Dumbo 10. The Irishman

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Parasite

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. 1917 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. Joker 10. Richard Jewell

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 8. Judy 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

Next in line: 6. Avengers: Endgame 7. Cats 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Avengers: Endgame

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. Spider-Man: Far From Home

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra

Next in line: 6. The Aeronauts 7. Gemini Man 8. 1917 9. Spider-Man: Far From Home 10. Captain Marvel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. 1917
2. Marriage Story
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Little Women
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. Ad Astra 7. Waves 8. Harriet 9. Ford v Ferrari 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
2. Cats (Beautiful Ghosts)
3. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
4. Harriet (Stand Up)
5. Wild Rose (Glasgow)

Next in line: 6. Aladdin (Speechless) 7. The Lion King (Spirit) 8. Motherless Brooklyn (Daily Battles) 9. Bombshell (One Little Soldier) 10. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. The Biggest Little Farm
4. One Child Nation
5. The Cave

Next in line: 6. Ask Dr. Ruth 7. Knock Down the House 8. Citizen K 9. Sea of Shadows 10. Western Stars

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. The Traitor

Next in line: 6. The Whistlers 7. Beanpole 8. Monos 9. The Chambermaid 10. Invisible Life

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for another update in the next week or two!