Updated Oscar Predictions For Late November
I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving yesterday! Now, filled with turkey and stuffing, we turn our attention back to the Academy Awards. As mentioned in our last post, voters are almost assuredly pouring over screeners during this break, so it’s a pivotal time in the race. Assuming members of the Academy have access to everything that matters (unless you’re convinced Cats or Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is going to upend the season at the last moment), it’s just a matter of trying to read the tea leaves and figure out what they like best. Today, that’s what I’ve attempted to do in the newest update to my Oscar picks.
As you’ll see below, predictions have been updated to reflect the first screenings for 1917 and Richard Jewell, both of which I’ve seen. For the former, not only are all of the predicted categories basically safe bets now, there’s a chance that it’s in line for more wins than simply Roger Deakins in Best Cinematography. As for the latter, it really just depends on how much voters are in a Clint Eastwood mood. Time will tell, but right now, it does seem like a race between The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood. For my money, it’s a pick em here in late November.
Here now are some new Academy Award predictions to sift through:
BEST PICTURE
1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. 1917
4. Marriage Story
5. Parasite
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Joker
8. Bombshell
9. The Two Popes
10. Ford v Ferrari
Next in line: 11. Little Women 12. Richard Jewell 13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 14. The Farewell 15. Knives Out 16. Judy 17. Just Mercy 18. Rocketman 19. Waves 20. Honey Boy 21. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 22. Dolemite Is My Name 23. Hustlers 24. A Hidden Life 25. Cats 26. Dark Waters 27. Harriet 28. The Peanut Butter Falcon 29. Booksmart 30. Avengers: Endgame
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes – 1917
4. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
5. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Next in line: 6. James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari 7. Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes 8. Todd Phillips – Joker 9. Greta Gerwig – Little Women 10. Clint Eastwood – Richard Jewell
BEST ACTOR
1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
2. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
5. Taron Egerton – Rocketman
Next in line: 6. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 7. Paul Walter Houser – Richard Jewell 8. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 9. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari 10. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
BEST ACTRESS
1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Next in line: 6. Lupita Nyong’o – Us 7. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 8. Awkwafina – The Farewell 9. Ana de Armas – Knives Out 10. Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
5. Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell
Next in line: 6. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes 7. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 8. Shia LaBeouf – Honey Boy 9. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse 10. John Lithgow – Bombshell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood)
3. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
4. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
5. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
Next in line: 6. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey 7. Florence Pugh – Little Women 8. Taylor Russell – Waves 9. Annette Bening – The Report 10. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. Knives Out
5. Honey Boy
Next in line: 6. The Farewell 7. Bombshell 8. Ford v Ferrari 9. 1917 10. Us
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Two Popes
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. The Irishman
4. Little Women
5. Joker
Next in line: 6. Richard Jewell 7. Judy 8. Just Mercy 9. Dark Waters 10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Toy Story 5
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
5. Missing Link
Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Abominable 8. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part 9. Spies in Disguise 10. The Secret Life of Pets 2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. The Two Popes
Next in line: 6. Downton Abbey 7. Joker 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. The Irishman 10. Little Women
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Joker
Next in line: 6. A Hidden Life 7. Parasite 8. Ad Astra 9. Little Women 10. Waves
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women
Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. Dumbo 10. The Irishman
BEST FILM EDITING
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Parasite
Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. 1917 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. Joker 10. Richard Jewell
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. 1917
Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 8. Judy 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
Next in line: 6. Avengers: Endgame 7. Cats 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. The Lion King
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Avengers: Endgame
Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. Spider-Man: Far From Home
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra
Next in line: 6. The Aeronauts 7. Gemini Man 8. 1917 9. Spider-Man: Far From Home 10. Captain Marvel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. 1917
2. Marriage Story
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Little Women
5. Joker
Next in line: 6. Ad Astra 7. Waves 8. Harriet 9. Ford v Ferrari 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
2. Cats (Beautiful Ghosts)
3. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
4. Harriet (Stand Up)
5. Wild Rose (Glasgow)
Next in line: 6. Aladdin (Speechless) 7. The Lion King (Spirit) 8. Motherless Brooklyn (Daily Battles) 9. Bombshell (One Little Soldier) 10. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. The Biggest Little Farm
4. One Child Nation
5. The Cave
Next in line: 6. Ask Dr. Ruth 7. Knock Down the House 8. Citizen K 9. Sea of Shadows 10. Western Stars
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. The Traitor
Next in line: 6. The Whistlers 7. Beanpole 8. Monos 9. The Chambermaid 10. Invisible Life
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
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Stay tuned for another update in the next week or two!