Updated Oscar Predictions For Early December

Just a little over a month from now, the Academy Award nominations will be announced. Between now and then, the job will be to figure out what voters are thinking, and more importantly, what they’ll be doing. I’m talking to as many Academy members as possible (or at least the ones who will talk to me), while taking into account the precursors, as well as what the upcoming guild announcements could mean. It’s all just a fact finding mission right now, with plenty of guesswork thrown in for good measure. That’s the name of the game, but tis the season, after all.

The first time in a while, I’m predicting a split in Best Picture and Best Director. This could be the likeliest scenario if voters do equally fall for the two biggest contenders right now in The Irishman from Martin Scorsese and Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood from Quentin Tarantino. At the same time, that does leave the potential for a vote split that allows something like Marriage Story from Noah Baumbach or Parasite from Bong Joon-Ho to slip through, or it just ends up being a vote for 1917 from Sam Mendes. It all remains to be seen, but the buzz right now suggests that those are the clear cut top five, at least at the current moment…

Here now are some new Oscar predictions, ahead of the Golden Globe nominations on Monday:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. Marriage Story
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Joker
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. The Farewell
10. Richard Jewell

Next in line: 11. The Two Popes 12. Bombshell 13. Little Women 14. Knives Out 15. Uncut Gems 16. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 17. Honey Boy 18. Rocketman 19. Judy 20. Waves 21. Just Mercy 22. Dolemite Is My Name 23. Hustlers 24. A Hidden Life 25. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 26. Dark Waters 27. Harriet 28. The Peanut Butter Falcon 29. Cats 30. Avengers: Endgame

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes – 1917
4. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
5. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story

Next in line: 6. James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari 7. Clint Eastwood – Richard Jewell 8. Lulu Wang – The Farewell 9. Todd Phillips – Joker 10. Greta Gerwig – Little Women

BEST ACTOR

1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
2. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
5. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Next in line: 6. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 7. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory 8. Taron Egerton – Rocketman 9. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name 10. Paul Walter Houser – Richard Jewell

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
4. Lupita Nyong’o – Us
5. Awkwafina – The Farewell

Next in line: 6. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women 7. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet 8. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 9. Ana de Armas – Knives Out 10. Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
4. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell

Next in line: 6. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes 7. Shia LaBeouf – Honey Boy 8. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 9. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse 10. John Lithgow – Bombshell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood)
3. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
4. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
5. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

Next in line: 6. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey 7. Taylor Russell – Waves 8. Florence Pugh – Little Women 9. Annette Bening – The Report 10. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. The Farewell
4. Knives Out
5. Honey Boy

Next in line: 6. Parasite 7. Bombshell 8. Uncut Gems 9. Ford v Ferrari 10. 1917

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Irishman
2. The Two Popes
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Joker
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Just Mercy 7. Richard Jewell 8. Judy 9. Dark Waters 10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Abominable 8. Weathering with You 9. Spies in Disguise 10. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. The Two Popes 7. Downton Abbey 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. The Irishman 10. Little Women

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. A Hidden Life 7. Parasite 8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire 9. Ad Astra 10. Waves

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. Dumbo 10. The Irishman

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Parasite

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. 1917 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. Joker 10. Richard Jewell

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 8. Judy 9. Avengers: Endgame 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

Next in line: 6. Avengers: Endgame 7. Cats 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Avengers: Endgame

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. Spider-Man: Far From Home

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Ad Astra

Next in line: 6. The Aeronauts 7. Gemini Man 8. 1917 9. Spider-Man: Far From Home 10. Captain Marvel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. 1917
2. Marriage Story
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Little Women
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. Ad Astra 7. Waves 8. Harriet 9. Ford v Ferrari 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
2. Cats (Beautiful Ghosts)
3. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
4. Harriet (Stand Up)
5. Wild Rose (Glasgow)

Next in line: 6. Aladdin (Speechless) 7. The Lion King (Spirit) 8. Motherless Brooklyn (Daily Battles) 9. Bombshell (One Little Soldier) 10. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. The Biggest Little Farm
4. Maiden
5. One Child Nation

Next in line: 6. Wrestle 7. Ask Dr. Ruth 8. Knock Down the House 9. Sea of Shadows 10. Western Stars

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. The Traitor

Next in line: 6. The Whistlers 7. Beanpole 8. Monos 9. The Chambermaid 10. Invisible Life

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for another update in the next week or two!