Updated Oscar Predictions For Mid December

Hot on the heels of the Academy revealing the shortlists for nine of their categories, a predictions update is in order, now isn’t it? Especially considering the time of year, it’s hard not to have changes to the lineup to make on a near weekly basis. I actually play around with them almost every single day, but I try not to overwhelm you all with them. Today, however, is a perfect day to release them. With Star Wars about to dominate the rest of the week (I’m seeing it as you read this, in all likelihood), let us think about Oscar for the moment.

Most of the changes here are related to the shortlist announcement, though there are adjustments throughout. Frankly, not a whole lot changed due to the shortlists, except for Cats going from arguably the frontrunner in Best Original Song to being left out in the cold. You can compare predictions from earlier in the month to see some of the differences, but this is small scale tinkering. The bigger stuff is still to come…

Here are my updated Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Parasite
4. 1917
5. Marriage Story
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Joker
8. Bombshell
9. Ford v Ferrari
10. The Farewell

Next in line: 11. The Two Popes 12. Uncut Gems 13. Little Women 14. Knives Out 15. Judy 16. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 17. Rocketman 18. Hustlers 19. Richard Jewell 20. Honey Boy 21. Just Mercy 22. Dolemite Is My Name 23. Waves 24. A Hidden Life 25. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 26. Dark Waters 27. Harriet 28. The Peanut Butter Falcon 29. Cats 30. Avengers: Endgame

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes – 1917
4. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
5. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story

Next in line: 6. James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari 7. Greta Gerwig – Little Women 8. Lulu Wang – The Farewell 9. Todd Phillips – Joker 10. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit

BEST ACTOR

1. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
2. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
5. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Next in line: 6. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes 7. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 8. Taron Egerton – Rocketman 9. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems 10. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
4. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
5. Lupita Nyong’o – Us

Next in line: 6. Awkwafina – The Farewell 7. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women 8. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 9. Ana de Armas – Knives Out 10. Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
2. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Al Pacino – The Irishman
4. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Alan Alda – Marriage Story

Next in line: 6. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes 7. Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell 8. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse 9. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy 10. Tracy Letts – Ford v Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (or Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood)
3. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
4. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
5. Annette Bening – The Report

Next in line: 6. Florence Pugh – Little Women 7. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell 8. Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell 9. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell 10. Taylor Russell – Waves

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. The Farewell
4. Knives Out
5. Uncut Gems

Next in line: 6. Parasite 7. Honey Boy 8. 1917 9. Ford v Ferrari 10. Bombshell

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Irishman
2. The Two Popes
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Joker
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Just Mercy 7. Hustlers 8. Judy 9. Dark Waters 10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. I Lost My Body
3. Frozen 2
4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
5. Missing Link

Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Abominable 8. Weathering with You 9. Spies in Disguise 10. Funan

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. The Two Popes 7. The Irishman 8. Dolemite Is My Name 9. Little Women 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Next in line: 6. Joker 7. Parasite 8. A Hidden Life 9. Jojo Rabbit 10. Ad Astra

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Downton Abbey
3. Dolemite Is My Name
4. Rocketman
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Judy 7. Harriet 8. Aladdin 9. Dumbo 10. The Irishman

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Marriage Story
5. Parasite

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 7. 1917 8. Joker 9. Uncut Gems 10. Jojo Rabbit

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Downton Abbey
5. Judy

Next in line: 6. Joker 7. 1917 8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 9. Dolemite Is My Name 10. Little Women

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood

Next in line: 6. Avengers: Endgame 7. Cats 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. The Lion King

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. 1917
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Ad Astra
5. Avengers: Endgame

Next in line: 6. Cats 7. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood 8. Rocketman 9. The Irishman 10. Spider-Man: Far From Home

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Gemini Man 7. Alita: Battle Angel 8. Cats 9. Captain Marvel 10. Terminator: Dark Fate

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. 1917
2. Marriage Story
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Little Women
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. Motherless Brooklyn 7. Ford v Ferrari 8. Avengers: Endgame 9. Jojo Rabbit 10. Us

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
2. Harriet (Stand Up)
3. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
4. Wild Rose (Glasgow (No Place Like Home))
5. Breakthrough (I’m Standing With You)

Next in line: 6. The Black Godfather (Letter To My Godfather) 7. The Lion King (Spirit) 8. Motherless Brooklyn (Daily Battles) 9. Aladdin (Speechless) 10. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. For Sama
4. Maiden
5. The Biggest Little Farm

Next in line: 6. One Child Nation 7. Knock Down the House 8. The Cave 9. The Great Hack 10. The Edge of Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. Corpus Christi

Next in line: 6. Beanpole 7. Honeyland 8. The Painted Bird 9. Truth and Justice 10. Those Who Remained

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Kitbull
2. Hair Love
3. Sister
4. The Physics of Sorrow
5. Memorable

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Fire in Paradise
2. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
3. Stay Close
4. The Nightcrawlers
5. In the Absence

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Little Hands
2. Brotherhood
3. Refugee
4. Sometimes, I Think about Dying
5. Miller & Son

Stay tuned for another update before the month/year is out!