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What Can The Golden Globes Tell Us About The Oscar Race?

In the aftermath of last night’s Golden Globe Awards, there are things to consider. Normally, when the Globes go down, we then can somewhat shrug it off, moving on to thinking about how Guild precursors will actually impact the Academy Awards. Here in the 2019-2020 season, however, it’s ever so slightly different. Yes, the same general consensus about how the Globe voter and the Oscar voter (more on that below) don’t cross over holds true, but with the Academy voters still holding nomination ballots in their hand on Sunday night and into Monday, that adds a bit of a wrinkle. The question is, how much of a wrinkle?

First of all, it’s important to remember that there isn’t a correlation between members of the Academy and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association Membership. AMPAS and the HFPA have no crossover. They’re two hugely different voting bodies. Now, when it comes to the Directors Guild of America, the Producers Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild of America, that’s a different story. There’s some serious crossover between DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, and Oscar (don’t forget about BAFTA, either). That’s where the Academy membership actually comes from. This is why, in almost all other years, I’m among the first to say that you don’t put a ton of stock in what the Golden Globe results are. They follow the beat of their own drummer, for better or worse.

What makes this unique is that the Globes took place while Oscar voting was going on, as well as before the Directors Guild and Producers Guild announced their nominees (the same going for BAFTA and WGA too, by the by). Any Academy Award voter who is waiting for the most information before voting is turning in their ballots tomorrow, right after DGA and PGA, though that’s going to be a minimal amount. Many turned in their votes already, but a handful for sure are doing so today, after taking a weekend to think it all over. Those Oscar voters are doing so without much Guild help, aside from SAG. What they do have, however, in their back pockets now is the Golden Globes. If a member of the Academy thinks that the Globe membership is worth listening to, they got a number of interesting things whispered to them last night.

What the Globe winners can tell us is limited, but basically, they inform who has some eleventh hour momentum. In that sense, 1917 and Sam Mendes got a nice boost, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Quentin Tarantino maintained momentum, and Taron Egerton may have locked up a Best Actor nomination for Rocketman. These things may well have held true before yesterday night, but if Academy members were watching, it likely didn’t hurt their chances. Oscar voters more or less vote for what they like, so another group doesn’t hugely sway them, but they got to see other winners than their own while deciding on their initial crop of nominees.

How much this matters remains to be seen. We’re more or less just guessing. Next week, we’ll know what Oscar has to say. It may be that none of this mattered in the slightest. It may also be that these last minute surges paid off hugely. Frankly, we probably won’t be able to full tell in either direction. Still, this is worth having in your head as voters finish up their initial selections. Phase One is coming to an end, so sit tight for some huge announcements in the very near future…

Stay tuned to see if the Golden Globes impact the Academy Awards at all!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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