Final Oscar Predictions For Phase One


The time has come. The Academy Award nominations are only a few days away. Oscar voters turned in their ballots earlier this week, so what’s done is done. We’re just waiting patiently to find out. The Academy has locked in their picks, but what about my predictions? Well, that gets finalized now. Below, you’ll find my final predictions for Phase One of the awards season. I’m doing this now, as opposed to closer to Monday morning, purely to make sure I don’t obsess over them…or don’t obsess over them any more than usual.

Phase One has largely confirmed who and what we thought the frontrunners for the Oscars were, so this is just about figuring out how well they’ll do. The main questions to figure out surround how many Best Picture nominees they’ll be, which contenders will fill out the bottom of the lineup, and if we’ll have any acting surprises. As you’ll see next, I largely went safe, backing off of some of my bolder picks in recent weeks. Interestingly, I went from Uncut Gems getting five nominations to being shut out, to various permutations in between. The same for a few other fringe players. Check out the predictions and see where I landed. Now, we just wait…

Here goes nothing…final Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Marriage Story
7. Joker
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari
10. Knives Out

Next in line: 11. Bombshell 12. Rocketman 13. Uncut Gems 14. The Two Popes 15. The Farewell 16. Judy 17. Hustlers 18. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 19. Pain and Glory 20. A Hidden Life 21. Dolemite Is My Name 22. Just Mercy 23. Honey Boy 24. Richard Jewell 25. Dark Waters 26. Waves 27. Avengers: Endgame 28. Harriet 29. Booksmart 30. The Peanut Butter Falcon

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Sam Mendes – 1917
3. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
4. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
5. Todd Phillips – Joker

Next in line: 6. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit 7. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story 8. Ben Safdie and Josh Safdie – Uncut Gems 9. Greta Gerwig – Little Women 10. Pedro Almodovar – Pain and Glory

BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
3. Taron Egerton – Rocketman
4. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
5. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Next in line: 6. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari 7. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems 8. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes 9. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 10. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Next in line: 6. Awkwafina – The Farewell 7. Lupita Nyong’o – Us 8. Mary Kay Place – Diane 9. Alfre Woodard – Clemency 10. Ana de Armas – Knives Out

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
3. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Al Pacino – The Irishman
5. Song Kang-ho – Parasite

Next in line: 6. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes 7. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy 8. John Lithgow – Bombshell 9. Alan Alda – Marriage Story 10. Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
3. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
4. Margot Robbie – Bombshell
5. Florence Pugh – Little Women

Next in line: 6. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell 7. Annette Bening – The Report 8. Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell 9. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell 10. Taylor Russell – Waves

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. Knives Out
5. Booksmart

Next in line: 6. The Farewell 7. 1917 8. Uncut Gems 9. Bombshell 10. Ford v Ferrari

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Irishman
2. The Two Popes
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Little Women
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 7. Hustlers 8. Just Mercy 9. Judy 10. Dark Waters

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Missing Link
3. Frozen 2
4. I Lost My Body
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Next in line: 6. Klaus 7. Abominable 8. Weathering with You 9. Funan 10. Okko’s Inn

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. Little Women

Next in line: 6. Jojo Rabbit 7. The Two Popes 8. Joker 9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. The Lighthouse 7. Parasite 8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire 9. A Hidden Life 10. Jojo Rabbit

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Dolemite Is My Name
3. Rocketman
4. Little Women
5. Downton Abbey

Next in line: 6. The Irishman 7. Judy 8. Jojo Rabbit 9. Aladdin 10. Dumbo

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. Parasite
5. 1917

Next in line: 6. Uncut Gems 7. Joker 8. Marriage Story 9. Jojo Rabbit 10. Waves

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
4. Judy
5. Joker

Next in line: 6. Downton Abbey 7. 1917 8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 9. Dolemite Is My Name 10. Little Women

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
5. Rocketman

Next in line: 6. The Irishman 7. Avengers: Endgame 8. Joker 9. Ad Astra 10. Cats

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
5. Rocketman

Next in line: 6. Avengers: Endgame 7. The Irishman 8. Cats 9. Joker 10. Ad Astra

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. 1917
5. Gemini Man

Next in line: 6. Alita: Battle Angel 7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 8. Cats 9. Captain Marvel 10. Terminator: Dark Fate

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. 1917
2. Joker
3. Marriage Story
4. Little Women
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Next in line: 6. Jojo Rabbit 7. Ford v Ferrari 8. Us 9. Motherless Brooklyn 10. Avengers: Endgame

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
2. Harriet (Stand Up)
3. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
4. Wild Rose (Glasgow (No Place Like Home))
5. Breakthrough (I’m Standing With You)

Next in line: 6. The Lion King (Spirit) 7. The Black Godfather (Letter To My Godfather) 8. Motherless Brooklyn (Daily Battles) 9. Aladdin (Speechless) 10. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. For Sama
4. Maiden
5. The Biggest Little Farm

Next in line: 6. One Child Nation 7. Knock Down the House 8. The Cave 9. The Great Hack 10. The Edge of Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Atlantics
5. Honeyland

Next in line: 6. Corpus Christi 7. Beanpole 8. The Painted Bird 9. Truth and Justice 10. Those Who Remained

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Kitbull
2. Decera
3. Mind My Mind
4. The Physics of Sorrow
5. Memorable

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
2. Fire in Paradise
3. Stay Close
4. The Nightcrawlers
5. In the Absence

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Little Hands
2. Sometimes, I Think about Dying
3. Refugee
4. Brotherhood
5. Hefta Football Club

Stay tuned for the nomination results on Monday morning!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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