Updated Academy Award Predictions After The Nominations

Today, we’re moving on from analysis of the Oscar nomination announcement to an initial look at my new predictions. This is a perfect time to post too, as next week brings some of the Guild results into the fold, which will evolve the race once more. This morning, we’re just taking a gander at where things initially stand. The nominees have been announced, so we know what the Academy is debating between. The question is just, who and what will the end up honoring next month?

As you’ll see below, the frontrunners largely remain the same. There are, at best, six legitimate contenders for Best Picture, though Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit is somewhat of a longer shot. Mostly we have Sam Mendes’ 1917 and Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood battling it out, with Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite lurking as a potential up the middle spoiler (same in Best Director), while Todd Phillips’ Joker and Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman are one level back. Then, there’s the Acting categories, which seem somewhat locked up for Joaquin Phoenix (for Joker), Renee Zellweger (for Judy), Brad Pitt (for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood), and Laura Dern (for Marriage Story). Perhaps a surprise looms, but for the moment, this does seem like a solid initial look at what Oscar might ultimately do…

Here now is my first crack at Academy Award predictions after the nomination announcement:

BEST PICTURE

1. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Parasite
4. Joker
5. The Irishman
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Marriage Story
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Sam Mendes – 1917
2. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
3. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
5. Todd Phillips – Joker

BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
5. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
3. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Al Pacino – The Irishman
5. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
3. Margot Robbie – Bombshell
4. Florence Pugh – Little Women
5. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. 1917
5. Knives Out

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Two Popes
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Missing Link
3. I Lost My Body
4. Klaus
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. Jojo Rabbit

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. The Lighthouse

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Parasite
4. Joker
5. Jojo Rabbit

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. 1917
3. Joker
4. Judy
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Ad Astra

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
5. Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. 1917
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Marriage Story
4. Little Women
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
2. Harriet (Stand Up)
3. Frozen 2 (Into the Unknown)
4. Breakthrough (I’m Standing With You)
5. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. American Factory
2. Honeyland
3. For Sama
4. The Cave
5. The Edge of Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Honeyland
5. Corpus Christi

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Kitbull
2. Decera
3. Hair Love
4. Memorable
5. Sister

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
2. St. Louis Superman
3. In the Absence
4. Life Overtakes Me
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Hefta Football Club
2. Brotherhood
3. A Sister
4. The Neighbors’ Window
5. Saria

Stay tuned for an update to these predictions next week!