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How Will PGA And SAG Impact The Oscar Race?

This weekend, the Guilds begin to chime in. Namely, the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild will be holding their awards ceremonies. By the time Sunday night is concluded, the Academy Award race will look potentially different. Or, a number of Oscar categories will be closer to being locked in. PGA is poised tip the Best Picture scales, while SAG may well do the same, while also having a major say in the four acting categories. Hot on the heels of nominations being announced, these next few days will vital in decoding how the Academy will potentially be voting when they have their say.

Remember, the Guilds are where we have crossover with Oscar, membership wise. PGA and SAG, as well as DGA (the Directors Guild of America), for that matter, are filled with members who are also in the Academy. So, when we think about these precursors, it’s important to keep in mind that they’re also being chosen by Oscar voters. Over the next two days, when you see the PGA and SAG picks, remember that they could potentially end up being the Academy Award ones as well.

Tomorrow brings the Producers Guild of America Awards. The PGA top prize is the Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures, which is their version of Best Picture. This year, the nominees are 1917 (Producers: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall), Ford v Ferrari (Producers: Peter Chernin & Jenno Topping, James Mangold), The Irishman (Producers: Jane Rosenthal & Robert De Niro, Emma Tillinger Koskoff & Martin Scorsese), Jojo Rabbit (Producers: Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi), Joker (Producers: Todd Phillips & Bradley Cooper, Emma Tillinger Koskoff), Knives Out (Producers: Rian Johnson, Ram Bergman), Little Women (Producer: Amy Pascal), Marriage Story (Producers: Noah Baumbach, David Heyman), Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood (Producers: David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino), and Parasite (Producers: Kwak Sin Ae, Bong Joon Ho). Presumably, this is between 1917, The Irishman, and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, with Parasite hoping to spoil. A win here for any of those four would go a long way towards making it the odds on favorite with Oscar. An upset at PGA by Jojo Rabbit or Joker? Well, that would make things very interesting…

Then, on Sunday comes the Screen Actor Guild Awards. In their version of Best Picture, the Best Ensemble prize puts the casts of Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, and Parasite against each other. The Irishman, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, or Parasite seem like the ones to look at here, but anything is possible with SAG. They also could easily lock in the four frontrunners in the acting categories, making Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor (for Joker), Renee Zellweger in Best Actress (for Judy), Brad Pitt in Best Supporting Actor (for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood), and Laura Dern in Best Supporting Actress (for Laura Dern) virtually unbeatable.

Together, this begins to form a narrative. If we see the two Guilds match up, in particular if they both embrace The Irishman, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, or Parasite, this could be a hint about what we’re in for the rest of the way. All told, this weekend will be the last stand for a number of the Best Picture nominees, one way or another. It’s going to be interesting, that’s for sure. Sit tight for the results here on the site, as we have them. Whatever the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild ultimately do, we’ll have coverage…

Stay tuned to see who and what take home the PGA and SAG prizes this weekend!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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