Taking A Look Back On Year In Advance Predictions As Awards Season Heads Into The Final Stretch

Once again friends, here’s an opportunity for me to embarrass myself. Back at the start of last March, I posted my year in advance predictions for this Oscar season. As is always the case, these picks are never even close to accurate. One year, I managed to get about half of the ultimate Best Picture field, and that was pretty incredible. Two years ago, I got three of the Picture nominees correct. Last time out, it was only two (though one of my predictions was just a year early). This year…well, you’ll see what happened. Interestingly though, I mostly avoided being too far off in a number of categories once again. So, while it’s not a particularly great showing, it certainly could have been worse. Proof that if nothing else that I’m at least halfway decent at my job, right?

What you’ll see below is just how on point (or off point) I was. To be fair, I did hit on a few solid predictions, and didn’t really wipe out in too many categories. I just usually do a bit better. Maybe chalk it up to how the Academy is evolving? Oscar voters seem to be split between old school and new school these days, which is why the race for Best Picture can be between 1917 and Parasite. It’s something I’m thinking about while preparing the next set of year in advance predictions (in a couple of weeks you’ll see those, though I probably will wait until after the Academy Awards go down), but it’s important to remember that at an early stage, it’s all just guesswork.

This was my vaguely terrible first attempt this season at Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Knives Out
3. The Irishman
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. The Goldfinch
6. Untitled Roger Ailes Project
7. Rocketman
8. Lucy In The Sky
9. Harriet
10. The Report

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
3. Rian Johnson – Knives Out
4. Marielle Heller – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Jay Roach – Untitled Roger Ailes Project

BEST ACTOR

1. Timothée Chalamet – The King
2. Adam Driver – The Report
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. Taron Egerton – Rocketman

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
2. Amy Adams – The Woman in the Window
3. Natalie Portman – Lucy In The Sky
4. Alfre Woodard – Clemency
5. Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go Bernadette?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Al Pacino – The Irishman
3. John Lithgow – Untitled Roger Ailes Project
4. Matthew Rhys – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. John Hamm – Lucy In The Sky

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Annette Bening – The Report
2. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch
4. Charlize Theron – Untitled Roger Ailes Project
5. Zazie Beetz – Lucy In The Sky

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Knives Out
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Report
4. Untitled Roger Ailes Project
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Goldfinch
2. The Irishman
3. Little Women
4. The Woman in the Window
5. Toy Story 4

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen 2
3. Missing Link
4. Sonic the Hedgehog
5. Wonder Park

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Ad Astra
5. The Goldfinch

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Goldfinch
3. Ad Astra
4. The Irishman
5. Knives Out

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Rocketman
3. Downton Abbey
4. The Irishman
5. Harriet

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Irishman
2. Knives Out
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. The Goldfinch
5. Star Wars Episode IX

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Rocketman
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Cats

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Rocketman
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Cats
4. Ad Astra
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Star Wars Episode IX
3. Ad Astra
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Rocketman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. Avengers: Endgame
3. Star Wars Episode IX
4. Ad Astra
5. Captain Marvel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Ad Astra
2. Star Wars Episode IX
3. The Irishman
4. Harriet
5. The Goldfinch

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Knock Down the House
2. Apollo 11
3. Wrestle
4. Ask Dr. Ruth
5. Love, Antosha

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

As you can see, I hit on The Irishman and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, which were the easy ones, and actually came pretty close with Bombshell, Knives Out, and Rocketman. This is all mostly just fun, so make of it what you will. For me, it’s just a silly thing to help space out the serious awards season analysis…

Stay tuned for my actual year in advance predictions sometime in early February!