Updated Academy Award Predictions After ACE Eddie, PGA, And SAG

After a number of important Guilds and precursors have chimed in, do we know more about the Oscar race? Well, yes and no. Notable Academy Award precursors like the ACE Eddie prize, the Producers Guild Award, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards have come and gone. Some contenders, like Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, have been dinged, while others, as you’ll see below, have surged. All of that just builds towards trying to figure out what Academy members will do once voting opens up. Right now, it’s a holding pattern, at least until this weekend’s next wave of awards, including the Directors Guild, has its say. For the moment, we wait, we overthink, and we try to chat up voters. Today reflects the results of those three elements, with another update certainly on the horizon before the month comes to a close.

Below, you can see how I think things will go, taking into account all of the big precursors so far. There’s a bunch more this weekend that could color the race, but right now, it looks for all the world like a photo finish in Best Picture and Best Director between 1917 from Sam Mendes and Parasite from Bong Joon-Ho. The four acting races seem sewn up, as does Best Cinematography, Best Original Song, and Best International Feature. The rest? Well, that’s what the next few weeks are for. The entire season has been unpredictable, so why stop now? Some of the narratives I’m following are as follows: How does Parasite do? Can it make history? Will Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman wind up shut out? And so on. For the moment, check out my Oscar picks and stay tuned for an update next week after we know the DGA results, among a handful of other precursors…

Here now are my latest predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. 1917
2. Parasite
3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. The Irishman
6. Joker
7. Marriage Story
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
2. Sam Mendes – 1917
3. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
5. Todd Phillips – Joker

BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
5. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

BEST ACTRESS

1. Renée Zellweger – Judy
2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell
4. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
5. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Joe Pesci – The Irishman
3. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. Al Pacino – The Irishman
5. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story
2. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
3. Margot Robbie – Bombshell
4. Florence Pugh – Little Women
5. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. 1917
5. Knives Out

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 4
2. Missing Link
3. I Lost My Body
4. Klaus
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Parasite
4. The Irishman
5. Jojo Rabbit

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. The Lighthouse

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Parasite
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. 1917
3. Joker
4. Judy
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. Ad Astra

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
5. Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Irishman
2. The Lion King
3. 1917
4. Avengers: Endgame
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Marriage Story
4. Little Women
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Rocketman (I’m Gonna Love Me Again)
2. Harriet (Stand Up)
3. Frozen II (Into the Unknown)
4. Breakthrough (I’m Standing With You)
5. Toy Story 4 (I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. American Factory
2. Honeyland
3. For Sama
4. The Cave
5. The Edge of Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Les Miserables
4. Honeyland
5. Corpus Christi

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Kitbull
2. Hair Love
3. Decera
4. Memorable
5. Sister

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
2. St. Louis Superman
3. In the Absence
4. Life Overtakes Me
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Hefta Football Club
2. Brotherhood
3. A Sister
4. The Neighbors’ Window
5. Saria

Look for another update next week!